Analysis of soil moisture trends in Europe using rank-based and empirical decomposition approaches

Almendra-Martín, Laura; Martínez-Fernández, José; Piles, María; González-Zamora, Ángel; Benito-Verdugo, Pilar; Gaona, Jaime

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103868

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…3.3), mandates (i) continuous data, ideally since pre-industrial times but at least from 1950 onwards (van Oldenborgh et al, 2021), and (ii) data coverage at least until August 2022 to infer the probability -or return period -of the 2022 summer soil drought. Many available soil moisture observations do not meet these criteria, hence we perform our main analysis for 1950-2022 and with soil moisture estimates derived from land surface models ingesting reanalysed or observed meteorological data, a common approach for assessing soil moisture trends (e.g., Albergel et al, 2013;Bi et al, 2016;Cheng & Huang, 2016;Deng et al, 2020;Qiao et al, 2021;Almendra-Martín et al, 2022). These datasets are introduced below along with additional meteorological variables used for analysis.…”

Section: Main Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought

Schumacher

Zachariah

Otto

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. In the 2022 summer, West-Central Europe and several other northern-hemisphere mid-latitude regions experienced substantial soil moisture deficits in the wake of precipitation shortages and elevated temperatures. Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change, using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models. We find that in West-Central Europe, a June–August root-zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate, but would have occurred only about once per century during pre-industrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large. Reasons are manifold, but include the lack of direct soil moisture observations at the required spatiotemporal scales, the limitations of remotely sensed estimates, and the resulting need to simulate soil moisture with land surface models driven by meteorological data. Nevertheless, observation-based products indicate long-term declining summer soil moisture for both regions, and this tendency is likely fueled by regional warming, while no clear trends emerge for precipitation. Finally, our climate model analysis suggests that in a 2 °C world, 2022-like soil drought conditions would become twice as likely for West-Central Europe compared to today, and would take place nearly every year across the northern extratropics.

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Section: Main Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought

Schumacher

Zachariah

Otto

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Several studies obtained similar results [21,85], and others have confirmed these results since at the end of the 20th century there were increases in VPD [86] and a warming of the Earth's surface with significant increases in temperature [87]. Furthermore, in the study by Almendra-Martín et al [88], a general decreasing trend in SM in Europe was observed. However, in the second period, the pattern that was observed in the first period changed, and only the direct relationships of Tmax in autumn and summer with the SOS and EOS, respectively, were significant.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Recent Cereal Phenological Variations under Mediterranean Conditions

Benito-Verdugo,

González-Zamora,

Martínez-Fernández

2024

Remote Sensing

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This study analyzes the temporal patterns of rainfed cereal phenology extracted from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset in the main cereal-growing regions under a Mediterranean climate in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy during the period 1982–2022. The series before and after the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed separately. Phenological parameters were extracted using the modified dynamic threshold method, and their trends were analyzed. Correlation analyses were performed to study the relationships among these parameters and to analyze the influence of hydroclimatic variables on the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season. Results showed a temporal reversal in phenological trends between both study periods, coinciding with the global warming hiatus. In the first period (1982–2002), SOS and EOS advanced (−7.5 and −3.1 days, respectively), and the length of growing season (LOS) increased. However, during the second stage (2003–2022), SOS and EOS were delayed (7.5 and 1.7 days, respectively), and LOS decreased. Similar dynamics were observed for the influence of the hydroclimatic variables on SOS and EOS, stronger in the first period and weaker in the second. This study provides valuable information on the phenological dynamics of rainfed cereals that may be useful for their management and planning in climate change scenarios.

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“…Spain and Germany were selected as study areas (Figure 1) for different reasons. The first reason is because several studies have observed significant drought trends in southern and central Europe [41,42]. Second, due to the importance of cereal grain production in Spain and Germany, they were among the top 5 producing countries in Europe in 2022 [43].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Germany is a temperate country in which agriculture is mainly energy-limited. However, environmental and climate conditions are changing, and positive drought trends have recently been observed in many regions of central Europe [41,82]. Consequently, for the selection of the critical month for the yield variable and, therefore, the detection of drought years, a provincial and monthly scale analysis of agricultural drought index trends was performed.…”

Section: Germanymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Agricultural Drought on Barley and Wheat Yield: A Comparative Case Study of Spain and Germany

Benito-Verdugo,

Martínez-Fernández,

González-Zamora

et al. 2023

Agriculture

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Given the growing interest in drought impacts on crops, this work studied the impact of agricultural drought on wheat and barley during the period 2001–2020. The study was carried out in the Spanish regions of Castilla y León and Castilla–La Mancha, with approximate areas of 94,000 km2 and 79,000 km2, respectively, and in the German regions of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Niedersachsen and Bayern, with approximate areas of 34,000 km2, 48,000 km2 and 71,000 km2, respectively. These are the main cereal-growing regions of Spain and Germany. Soil moisture (SM) in the root zone was extracted from the LISFLOOD model database, and SM anomalies were used as the agricultural drought index. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) variables were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the month in which SM is most influential on these crop state variables was identified. Crop yields in Spain and Germany were obtained from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food and the German Federal Statistical Office, respectively. Agricultural drought years and their impact on cereal yields were determined on a regional scale using three approaches based on the critical month with different time periods. These approaches were the use of the critical month and the two (before or after) and the three months (before and after) around the critical month. Two different analyses were used to identify the critical month, depending on the different environmental conditions in each country. These two approaches consisted of a monthly correlation analysis between SM anomalies and cereal yield in Spain and a monthly trend analysis of SM anomalies in Germany. The results showed a dependence of crop variables on SM in spring months in both countries and in summer months in Germany. Differences were found depending on the environmental conditions. A considerable reduction in cereal yields was obtained in Spain which exceeded 30%. Similarly, a worrying sign was observed in Germany, with a positive agricultural drought trend and a yield reduction of almost 5% in cereal crops. In view of future forecasts of the negative impact of climate change on global food production, this study provides valuable information for water and agricultural management under climate change scenarios. Both in regions that are already threatened and in those that until recently were not affected, it is necessary to study adaptation measures to avoid aggravating the impact of agricultural drought on crops, which could improve water productivity and future food security.

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Analysis of soil moisture trends in Europe using rank-based and empirical decomposition approaches

Cited by 19 publications

References 69 publications

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 West-Central European soil drought

Recent Cereal Phenological Variations under Mediterranean Conditions

Impact of Agricultural Drought on Barley and Wheat Yield: A Comparative Case Study of Spain and Germany

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