Analysis of Terrorist Attack Scenarios and Measures for Countering Terrorist Threats

Abstract

The chapter will present the classification of the types of modern terrorism and describe scenarios and probabilistic models of ordinary, technological, and the so-called intelligent terrorism that are distinguished by their triggering events, propagation modes, damaging factors, probabilities, and consequences. A comparative assessment of these three types of terrorism is presented. Dynamic three-sided models allow assessing the situation from standpoints of terrorists and law enforcement agencies, the administration of the complex engineering system, and analyzing actions and counteractions of various sides involved. A new comprehensive approach to ensuring complex engineering system security is described. This approach is focused not only on the development of protection barriers and safeguards against predetermined list of design-basis scenarios of terrorist attacks but also on increasing the system's resilience toward beyond design-basis attack scenarios.

Development of the interacting agents behavior scenario in the cyber security system

“…In [12], a classification of the types of modern terrorism is presented and scenarios and probabilistic models of ordinary, technological, and so-called intellectual terrorism are described. Scenarios are distinguished by their initiating events, distribution methods, damaging factors, probabilities and consequences.…”