Analysis of the atmospheric macro-physical using spatial methods

Abstract

The central western area of Venezuela has an unequal distribution of precipitation. Due to its agricultural importance, is necessary to plan water accounting and this requires a evaluation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and an estimate of local geophysical effect from the relief. In this research we use an iterative computationally lattice approach to perform a confirmatory analysis of the variability and the spatial correlation structure in monthly precipitation stations. Spatial correlograms and pooled empirical semivariogram were applied to evaluate the most appropriate spatial weighting matrix to estimate the Moran’s I. The altitude effect over monthly rainfall was estimated through spatial regression algorithm which determine the predominant spatial process in each slice. A homogeneous spatial stochastic process with positive spatial autocorrelation is evidenced. There is a trend towards a higher frequency of spatial error and spatial auto-regressive processes between the months of June and August whilst there are not dominant process between October and December. This response is caused by the dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone, which generates a seasonal effect on precipitation. These estimations allows decision-making in modeling and will lead to an improvement for analysis and forecasting in areas strongly affected by climate change and water stress.