Analysis of the burden and trends of communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries from 1990 to 2019

Abstract

Background Communicable diseases contribute substantially to morbidity and death rates worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. Pacific Island countries face unique challenges in addressing these diseases due to their remote locations and limited resources. Understanding the burden and trends of these diseases in this region is crucial for developing effective public health interventions. Objective This study aimed to analyze the burden and trends of communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries from 1990 to 2019. Methods We utilized data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to analyze indicators including incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Excel 2016, R 4.2.1, and GraphPad Prism 9 were used to analyze and visualize the data. Joinpoint regression models were used for trend analysis, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries showed an upward trend (AAPC = 0.198%, 95% CI = 0.0174 ~ 0.221), while the standardized death rate (AAPC = -1.098%, 95% CI = –1.34 ~ 0.86) and standardized DALY rate (AAPC = -1.008%, 95% CI = -1.187 ~ -0.828) showed downward trends. In 2019, the standardized incidence, death, and DALY rates of communicable diseases were higher among males than among females, but the standardized death and DALY rates among males decreased faster than those among females from 1990 to 2019. There were significant differences in the disease burden among different Pacific Island countries. The Solomon Islands had the highest standardized death rate (363.73/100,000), and Guam had the lowest (50.42/100,000). Papua New Guinea had the highest standardized DALY rate (16,041.14/100,000), and the Cook Islands had the lowest (2,740.13/100,000). In 2019, the main attributable risk factors for communicable disease deaths in Pacific Island countries were child and maternal malnutrition (28.32%), followed by unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (27.14%), air pollution (16.11%), and unsafe sex (14.96%). There were considerable geographical variations in risk factors. Conclusion The burden of communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries remains high, despite improvements in mortality and disability-adjusted life-year rates over the past few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the burden and trends of communicable diseases in Pacific Island countries from 1990 to 2019. The findings reveal several important insights and highlight the need for targeted public health interventions in the region.