Analysis of the consequences of fragmentations in low and geostationary orbits

Abstract

The present distribution of intact objects is a good proxy to quantify the catastrophic collision risk and consequences in the coming decades. The results of a large number of long term simulations of the LEO environment perturbed by the collisional fragmentation of massive objects are used to identify the main driving parameters of the long term collisional evolution of the debris population and measure the danger represented by "typical" classes of space objects. An evaluation norm, able to highlight the differences between comparative long term evolution scenarios and to give a quantitative measure of the effects of specific parameters affecting the evolution, is devised. It is shown how, for collisional fragmentations in LEO, due to the highly stochastic evolution of the LEO environment, even the fragmentation of a massive spacecraft might not be able to alter the long term evolution of the LEO population beyond the intrinsic statistical variability associated * Corresponding author Email address: a.rossi@ifac.cnr.it (A. Rossi) May 26, 2015 with the Monte Carlo procedure. Among the parameters determining the long term effects of a collisional fragmentation in LEO, a combination of mass and altitude of the event appears to be the driving factor. In GEO, the situation is different, and the addition of a massive fragmentation lives a signature on the environment that is detectable throughout the investigated time span, with the mass being the only factor important to asses the long term consequences of a collisional fragmentation. Preprint submitted to Advances in Space Research

Assessment of breakup severity on operational satellites

“…For all the simulated collisions the breakup of a spacecraft (rather than a rocket body) is assumed, even if in the size range of interest the impact of this hypothesis is minimal 1 . The collision velocity is set equal to 10 km s −1 , which is an average value for LEO and which was used also by Rossi et al (2015a). The mass of the colliding projectile is neglected.…”

“…The selection of the possible targets follows an approach similar to the one proposed by Rossi et al (2015a) to define representative fragmentations.…”

“…Rossi et al (2015a), for example, simulated different fragmentations, considering locations and targets representative of the distribution of intact objects in orbit. For each scenario, the number of objects present in orbit in the 200 years following the fragmentation was studied and used to measure the effect of the fragmentation.…”

Collision Probability Due to Space Debris Clouds Through a Continuum Approach

“…1, considering the collision probability associated with fragments larger than Table 1 List of target spacecraft [29] for the collision probability analysis. ported in Tab.…”

“…1: they were extracted from a list prepared by IFAC-CNR, ISTI-CNR and University of Southampton for a study sponsored by the European Space Agency [29]. The objects in Tab.…”