Analysis of the Energy Justice in Natural Gas Distribution with Geographically Weighted Regression

Abstract

Background: Households are expected to have access to variety of modern, convenient and efficient urban energy alternatives, while limited or no access to urban energy services results in energy injustice. The amount of natural gas investments is affected from the socio-economic and physical characteristics of the communities. Natural gas distribution has been carried out for more than 15 years in Izmir, but still not all neighborhoods have access to the network in the city, which points to the presence of energy injustice. Revealing the local factors contributing to the injustice is key for decision makers to develop effective energy policies in emerging economies, such as Turkey. Results: Both GWR and OLS are employed to find out the variables affecting the amount of natural gas investments, while GWR provides improved results than OLS. Population, employment, income, and physical and legal status of the neighborhoods affect the amount of total investments at the neighborhood level. Higher population, higher average income, and higher employment lead to more investments. Disadvantaged areas, on the other hand, have negative impact on the amount of investments. GWR accounts for the location specific variations while mapping the spatial distribution of the factor coefficients shows the prominence of factors in investments throughout the study area visually. Conclusions: Energy injustice is observed at some level, unless variety of energy choices are available for the society. Energy injustice appears to be two-fold, since it is related to demand and supply sides, and specific policies are needed addressing to both. Population and employment are the factors related to the number of potential customers, accordingly leading to higher investments. Income, on the other hand, depends on the purchasing power of the customers, and there are economic barriers that need to be regulated for the low-income households to switch to natural gas. Disadvantaged areas in terms of their legal and physical attributes, either declared as urban transformation areas or currently under urban transformation, lack the natural gas service provision in general. However, natural gas can be invested in those areas when the transformation is completed in accordance with the new development plans.