Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future of Public Transport: Example of Warsaw

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is completely changing the transport customs of city residents. It has decreased the number of travels and has affected changes in the division of transport means. This article presents a case study of the city of Warsaw, attempting to describe the process of changes in the use of public transport in daily trips in the following months of the pandemic. Statistical data on the public transport offer, number of passengers, and tickets sold in 2017–2021, which are available in monthly and annual bulletins issued by the public transport organizer, were used. The knowledge base was supplemented with the results of surveys conducted among the city’s residents. The obtained data were organized and analyzed using descriptive statistics methods. The study findings reveal that the lower use of public transport for travel during the COVID-19 pandemic is mainly due to the imposed limits on the number of passengers and is also linked to changes in the structure of the tickets purchased, especially a significant decrease in the sale of long-distance tickets, which implies the loss of a significant number of most valuable, regular users. It was also observed that the appraisal of public transport did not deteriorate, which allowed to expect with optimism the return of passengers after the pandemic. Therefore, a package of possible steps to be taken to restore confidence in public transport and to enable return of lost passengers is presented. The results of the analyses show how easily passengers can be lost and why it is so important to ensure the functioning of public transport even in crisis situations such as a pandemic. These results can also be applied in transport policy updates.

Generalized Ordered Logit Model with Testing Assumptions: A Case Study of Using Urban Light Rail in Bursa

“…The decrease in the use of public transport was in correlation with the rising number of Covid-19 cases [17][18][19]. It is stated that the most important challenge after the Covid-19 pandemic is to re-establish trust in public transportation [20][21][22]. Travel behavior, sociodemographic and latent characteristics of the road users were found to be significant for the reason of switch from public transport to other modes during the pandemic [23].…”

Regional Differences in the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Bus Transport in the Slovak Republic

“…Research into the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on PPT, demand and passenger behaviour has been carried out in several countries. In Poland, the lower usage of PPT during the COVID-19 pandemic was mainly due to the set limits on the number of passengers and a significant decrease in the sale of long-distance tickets [13]. The development of PPT services in Poland was predicted using a questionnaire survey [14].…”

Mobility Nodes as an Extension of the Idea of Transfer Nodes—Solutions for Smaller Rail Stations with an Example from Poland

“…Current research highlights the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel in cities and agglomerations (for example [18,19]). The decreasing number of passengers has created a need for continuing development of public transport and wider coordination of means of transport.…”