Analysis of the Navy's Increased Cap on Accessions of Non-High-School-Diploma Graduates in FY99

Final Analysis of Evaluation of Homeschool and ChalleNGe Program Recruits

“…Specifically, representatives of the Navy expressed concern that "summer surge" recruits were not included among Navy survey respondents. The bulk of traditional high school recruits usually enter the Services during the summer surge; bootcamp attrition has been shown to be lower during these months [15]. As we picked up at 11 least some of the summer surge recruits for the Army, Air Force and Marines, we expected this problem to be most pronounced for the Navy.…”

“…Using CNA's in-house files, we examined the records of all Sailors who filled out our recruit survey to see which ones qualify for a rating. 15 Some qualify for a rating upon initial entry into the Navy;…”

“…Considerable evidence suggests substantial seasonal effects in attrition. Reference[15] finds that recruits who entered the Navy in FY99 during July, August, and September had lower bootcamp and 6-month attrition than those who entered in the fall; in contrast, recruits who entered in March, April, and May had higher attrition (the seasonal effect remains after correcting for personal characteristics).…”