Analysis of the Re-emergence and Occurrence of Cholera in Lagos State, Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract. This paper analysed the factors responsible for the re-emergence of cholera and predicted the future occurrence of Cholera in Lagos State, Nigeria using factor analysis, multiple linear regression analysis and a cellular automata model for the prediction. The study revealed six Local Government Areas (LGAs) under very high threat, nine under low threat, and Surulere and some parts of Amuwo Odofin under medium threat in the near future. These areas have an average population of 200,000 people each with the total tending towards millions of people, all under threat of cholera occurring and re-emerging in their communities. The factors relating to the re-emergence of the disease were discovered to be environmental (rainfall, R

What are the drivers of recurrent cholera transmission in Nigeria? Evidence from a scoping review

“…A majority of the reviewed documents [7,13,17, pertained to social drivers. Notably, the significant impact of cultural and behavioural factors on individual social drivers of cholera transmission (e.g.…”

“…Rainfall [7,26,30,32,45,62] and temperature [7,26,50] were identified as primary climatic drivers of cholera transmission in Nigeria. The association between cholera outbreaks and climatic drivers, particularly seasonal tropical rainfall, is well documented in other contexts [63][64][65][66].…”

“…Since the first report of a cholera outbreak in Nigeria in 1970 [7], the country has remained endemic for the disease with several epidemics and high attack rates and CFRs. Moreover, cholera in Nigeria has been increasingly linked with ongoing armed-conflicts, environmental and climatic changes, rapid urbanization and increasing population growth, inadequate emergency or public health responses, traditional and religious beliefs [7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Notably, inadequate access to portable water and poor sanitary conditions remain the principal determinant of cholera transmission in Nigeria, in line with global epidemiology [14].…”

Identifying and quantifying the factors associated with cholera-related death during the 2018 outbreak in Nigeria

“…Globally, deaths from cholera could be as high as 95,000 (21,000-143,000) per year [ 3 ], disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable and poorest populations with inadequate access to and preventive interventions [ 4 ]. Nigeria has been endemic for cholera since its first notification of the disease in 1970 [ 5 ]. Notable cholera outbreaks in the country with high CFRs include: 22,931 cases and 2,945 deaths (12.8% CFR) in 1971; 59,478 cases and 7,654 deaths (12.9% CFR) in 1991; 26,358 cases and 2,085 deaths (7.9% CFR) in 1999; and 41,787 cases and 1,716 deaths (4.1% CFR) in 2010 [ 6 ].…”

“…However, the cholera outbreak in 2018 is a major public health event with deleterious impacts on sociocultural and economic activities; and indicative that attaining the global strategic goals, especially in relation to cholera-related deaths, for the country needs to be supported with context-specific research evidence. While there is evidence on the risk factors for cholera infection including inadequate WASH interventions [ 9 ], consumption of contaminated food [ 10 ], environmental and climatic conditions [ 11 ], pattern of population migration [ 12 ], increasing armed conflicts and community misconceptions [ 5 , 13 ]) in Nigeria, there appears to be a paucity of evidence on what are the context-specific factors associated with adverse clinical outcomes, such as cholera-related deaths). For instance, a review of the literatures on cholera epidemiology in Nigeria found no specific evidence on the factors associated with cholera-related death [ 14 ], and a previous analysis of surveillance data from a major cholera outbreak in recent time was primarily descriptive in nature [ 15 ].…”