Analysis of the technical condition of the dam at the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP based on measurements of radial displacements and angles of incline of horizontal segments

Gordon, Lawrence A.; Skvortsova, A. E.; Stefanenko, N. I.

doi:10.1007/s10749-011-0228-2

Cited by 1 publication

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“…For example, equation (15), whose prognostic results are presented in Figures 3, 4 Besides, it should be noted that the dam's return to its initial state (at the moment of the reservoir drawdown) differs from the predicted values by the quantity of the 7-8 mm. Whether it is the result of irreversible dam displacements or of the change in acting factors -there is still no consolidated perspective on the issue in technical literature [8,24,25]. We also cannot suggest a plausible explanation to this fact so far.…”

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…The measurement data obtained from [1,8,[24][25][26][27] have been used as the initial data and inverse verification for the built mathematical models. The period of prognosis basis for all the built models was: April 30, 2007 -May 15, 2008.…”

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The period of prognosis basis for all the built models was: April 30, 2007 -May 15, 2008. This time interval was chosen because it coincides with the period when the dam preserved its monolithic status after overhaul (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003), accepting the nominal pressure head [24], and also because this time period precedes the accident of September 19, 2009. Different variants of the mathematical prognostic models of the dynamic type were built on the basis of recurrent equations of the 1 st and the 2 nd order for studying the displacements of the controlled points in high head dam of SSHP using the following input actions: To build prognostic models, we used the following types of recurrent equations.…”

Section: Research Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mathematical Modelling of Sayano-Shushenskaya Dam Displacement Process after 2009 Accident

Хорошилов¹

2018

JERA

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The research presented in the article is of cutting-edge importance because it proves the necessity to develop prognostic mathematical models with the view to studying the behavior of high-head dams for identifying the regularities of their deformations development process and thus providing quantitative definition for the set criteria values of the diagnostic indices to ensure safe operation of such structures. The paper focuses on the peculiarities of building prognostic mathematical models of the dynamic type on the basis of recurrent equations of the 1stand 2ndorders of different types depending on the order of the mathematical model, number of the principal acting factors and discreteness of the input data, with decorrelation of the input actions and sequence of transport delay introduction. It is shown that the properties of the recurrent equation solution in the form of two first conditional moment generating functions of the displacement process of the observed points in the structure delineate a prognostic model which allows predicting the displacements of the observed points. The paper describes the sequence of estimation stages during the creation of prognostic mathematical models in respect to the character of the predictive problem for various time periods of the structure operation. Different combinations of input actions and discreteness of input data, as well as their decorrelation, have been used. We also applied transport delay in order to correctly consider the inertial delay of the dam under different loads. To account for the residual part of the inertial delay, which is affected by random and unaccounted for factors, we used the autoregression model of the process development regularity. To determine the order of the autoregression model, we calculated asymptotically unbiased ratings of the correlation function for the residual error as a difference between the actual and predicted displacements. Methodological specifics of constructing prognostic models have been established in the context of the factors above. Prognostic mathematical models of different types have been developed for the selected period of the dam operation and the results of prediction have been discussed.

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