Analysis of trends in cancer mortality in England and Wales during 1951-80 separating changes associated with period of birth and period of death.

Abstract

Cancer mortality rates in England and Wales were analysed so to describe simultaneously changes affecting successive generations-that is, associated with period of birth-as weli as changes associated with the period in which the deaths took place. When mortality from all cancers was considered the analysis implied that, contrary to a widely held view, the rate of death from cancer had been declining in each sex in successive generations. For men the decline had occurred in generations born since 1900, whereas for women the peak came in the 1925 birth group. On the other hand, there had been little decline in the rates associated with period of death. Five examples of cancers of specific organs for which the trends contrasted are shown.

Age, socio-economic status and survival from cancer of cervix in the West of Scotland 1980-87

“…While young age has been associated with improved survival from cancer of cervix in two British studies (Meanwell et al, 1988;Russell et al, 1987), Junor et al (1989) found that after controlling for stage there was no difference in survival with age. Although increased mortality in younger women may be due simply to increased incidence caused by cohort effects such as those described by Osmond et al (1982Osmond et al ( , 1983, this finding is not inconsistent with the suggestion that a more aggressive form of the disease may be affecting younger women (Elliott et al, 1989), or with the effect of other variables on survival. Both of these questions are of sufficient importance to warrant further study within a multivariate framework.…”

Effect of screening on incidence of and mortality from cancer of cervix in England: evaluation based on routinely collected statistics

“…20 21Cervical cancer mortality in each birth cohort historically increased with age up to 60 years 21. If the raised risk and pattern of mortality are assumed for women born in the mid-1950s, by 1997 mortality would have increased to around 14/100 000 in women aged 35 to 44, and (with a similar projection based on a doubling of mortality for the cohort born in the mid-1940s) to around 19/100 000 in women aged 45 to 54.…”

“…These changes reflect the cohort effects in incidence. 20 21 40Little, if any, of the observed long term fall in mortality up to the late 1980s can be ascribed directly to screening because relatively few women dying from cervical cancer aged over 55 years would have been screened, and it was in these women that the mortality was highest and the falls were largest 31…”

Update of Trends in Mortality from Stroke in Italy from 1955 to 1987

“…The method employed here is conceptually similar to that described by Osmond et al [25] and Gardner and Osmond [26], but the procedure of minimization is based on the least squares weighted on the inverse of the log-likelihood of each two-factor model. Attention is needed in the interpretation of cohort values of ear lier and more recent generations because they are based on few age-specific rates.…”