Analysis of Trends in the Development of the Pharmaceutical Market of Ukraine in 2007–2021

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the development trends in the retail market for pharmaceuticals in the national aspect for the period 2007-2021 and to identify changes in the trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodology. The article analyses the main indicators of the development of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine: sales volumes in the pharmacy network in value and physical terms for the period 2007-2021. Periods of growth at different speeds were identified (2007-2012; 2013-2015 and 2016-2019) using methods of regression analysis are used, namely: development of trend models with an assessment of their quality based on the calculation of the coefficient of determination R. Results. The paper conducts a trend analysis of the total monetary revenue in the pharmaceutical retail market of Ukraine; conducts an analysis of the volume of sales in kind and the dynamics of the average price per package; makes a forecast of the dynamics in the pharmaceutical retail market of Ukraine for 2020 and 2021. It also identifies changes in trends caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and offers measures for further development of the pharmaceutical market of Ukraine. Dynamics models were created for each period and a forecast for 2020-2021 was made on the basis of the model for the last period. The impact of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic was analysed, a decrease in sales volume in April 2020 was estimated (by 45.9% compared to the forecast), it was found that within 6 months the dynamics of the market recovered, which indicates the high adaptive properties of the system. Practical implications. A comparison of sales volume dynamics in Ukraine and the world for 15 years from 2007 to 2021 showed that sales volume in Ukraine is growing five times faster than in the world as a whole. This proves that in the pharmaceutical industry both manufacturers and pharmacy chains have been making excessive profits at the expense of consumers. Value/originality. Such a situation in the pharmaceutical industry requires the development of measures at the state level to curb the growth of prices and increase transparency in their formation.