Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013

Li, Xin; Wang, Xuan

doi:10.1002/joc.5165

Cited by 100 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Increasing trends in R10mm and R20mm indices are detected at most of the evaluated stations, as shown in Figure 5b,c, respectively. The current study found that the number of extreme precipitation days are increasing over the MRB, which is in agreement with those obtained in nearby regions, i.e., Singapore [6] and Kelantan River Basin [14]. The regional trend in CDD decreased with a magnitude of 2.69 days/decade, meanwhile CWD increased at a rate of 0.1 days/decade.…”

Section: Annual Trend Of Precipitation Extremessupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In contrast to some Southeast Asia studies [6,25] that indicated tendency of wetter conditions due to increasing R95p and R99p trends, the MRB experienced drier conditions in the period of 1985-2015. This is proven through the reduction of precipitation amount contributed by the extremely wet days.…”

Section: Annual Trend Of Precipitation Extremescontrasting

confidence: 75%

“…General and extreme trends of the precipitation, Tmax and Tmin were conducted using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. This method is widely applied in hydro-climatic trend analysis [6,22]. The null hypothesis of the MK test is "there is no trend in the time series" based on the fact that the data is randomly ordered and independent.…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over the Muda River Basin, Malaysia

Tan

Samat

Chan

et al. 2019

Water

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Trends in precipitation and temperature extremes of the Muda River Basin (MRB) in north-western Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed from 1985 to 2015. Daily climate data from eight stations that passed high quality data control and four homogeneity tests (standard normal homogeneity test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test) were used to calculate 22 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) extreme indices. Non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall and Sens’ slope tests were applied to detect the trend and magnitude changes of the climate extremes. Overall, the results indicate that monthly precipitation tended to increase significantly in January (17.01 mm/decade) and December (23.23 mm/decade), but decrease significantly in May (26.21 mm/decade), at a 95% significance level. Monthly precipitation tended to increase in the northeast monsoon, but decrease in the southwest monsoon. Mann–Kendall test detected insignificant trends in most of the annual climate extremes, except the extremely wet days (R99p), mean of maximum temperature (TXmean), mean of minimum temperature (TNmean), cool days (TX10p), cool nights (TN10p), warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) indices. The number of heavy (R10mm), very heavy (R20mm), and violent (R50mm) precipitation days changed at magnitudes of 0~2.73, −2.14~3.33, and −1.67~1.29 days/decade, respectively. Meanwhile, the maximum 1-day (Rx1d) and 5-day (Rx5d) precipitation amount indices changed from −10.18 to 3.88 mm/decade and −21.09 to 24.69 mm/decade, respectively. At the Ampangan Muda station, TNmean (0.32 °C/decade) increased at a higher rate compared to TXmean (0.22 °C/decade). The number of the cold days and nights tended to decrease, while an opposite trend was found in the warmer days and nights.

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Section: Annual Trend Of Precipitation Extremessupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Annual Trend Of Precipitation Extremescontrasting

confidence: 75%

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over the Muda River Basin, Malaysia

Tan

Samat

Chan

et al. 2019

Water

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“…El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main global driver of fluctuations in tropospheric moisture content (Trenberth et al 2005), a key ingredient for extreme rain, and its influence is most pronounced in the tropics (Trenberth 2011). Recent efforts in attributing observed changes in tropical region precipitation extremes to mixed influence from local processes, ENSO, and global change (Li et al 2016(Li et al , 2018 provide helpful guidance for similar work in SSA.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying changing precipitation extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa with gauge and satellite products

Harrison

Funk

Peterson

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Sparse gauge networks in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) limit our ability to identify changing precipitation extremes with in situ observations. Given the potential for satellite and satellite-gauge precipitation products to help, we investigate how daily gridded gauge and satellite products compare for seven core climate change precipitation indices. According to a new gauge-only product, the Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network (REGEN), there were notable changes in SSA precipitation characteristics between 1950 and 2013 in well-gauged areas. We examine these trends and how these vary for wet, intermediate, and dry areas. For a 31 year period of overlap, we compare REGEN data, other gridded products and three satellite products. Then for 1998-2013, we compare a set of 12 satellite products. Finally, we compare spatial patterns of 1983-2013 trends across all of SSA. Robust 1950-2013 trends indicate that in well-gauged areas extreme events became wetter, particularly in wet areas. Annual totals decreased due to fewer rain days. Between 1983 and 2013 there were positive trends in average precipitation intensity and annual maximum 1 d totals. These trends only represent 15% of SSA, however, and only one tenth of the main wet areas. Unfortunately, gauge and satellite products do not provide consensus for wet area trends. A promising result for identifying regional changes is that numerous satellite products do well at interannual variations in precipitation totals and number of rain days, even as well as some gauge-only products. Products are less accurate for dry spell length and average intensity and least accurate for annual maximum 1 d totals. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (3B42-V7) and Climate Hazards center Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS v2.0) ranked highest for multiple indices. Several products have seemingly unrealistic trends outside of the wellgauged areas that may be due to influence of non-stationary systematic biases. Social media abstract. Sparse data show increasing Africa rainfall extremes and satellite products fill some missing pieces.

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“…The presence of an urban heat island (UHI), for example, has particularly strong implications for outdoor thermal comfort and health in a tropical context where air temperatures and humidity are already high throughout the year. A similar important question is to what extent the increase in the number of heavy rainfall events observed during the last 20 years in Singapore (Li et al, 2018) can be attributed to enhanced convection and emissions of aerosols, an issue which is of general relevance. Many observational studies are available to inform about individual aspects of the urban atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of MORUSES single‐layer urban canopy model in a tropical city: Results from Singapore

Simón-Moral

Dipankar

Roth

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A tropical version of the high‐resolution (300 m) UK Met Office forecast model (UM) using the MORUSES urban canopy parametrization (UCP) is adapted for Singapore. High‐resolution urban surface parameters are determined using a methodology based on Voronoi polygons applied to a 3D building database. The model is evaluated for clear sky and calm conditions at the neighbourhood scale by comparing its predictions with two sources of observations: energy balance data from an eddy covariance flux tower located in a low‐rise residential area, and a network of sensors measuring screen‐level temperature across the city. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal cycle of the surface energy balance fluxes. Net radiation is overestimated which likely follows from an underestimation in cloud cover and effective surface albedo. This overestimation partly explains the overestimation of the sensible‐ and latent‐heat fluxes. The higher model sensible‐heat flux is further hypothesised to be related to the overestimation of modelled canyon sensible‐heat flux. Its peak exhibits a 1 h delay, similar to simulated roof and canyon surface temperature. The model captures the diurnal cycle of temperature at a height of 20.5 m above ground and at screen level. A night‐time cold bias of 0.1–1.1 K and an overestimation of the daytime peak value are observed at both heights. These deviations are smaller than those predicted by other UCPs reported in the literature. A simple method to estimate the capability of an urban model to qualitatively distinguish screen‐level temperature differences across different urban morphologies is developed which shows that MORUSES is clearly able to represent the impacts of different neighbourhoods on the thermal environment.

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Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013

Cited by 100 publications

References 45 publications

Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over the Muda River Basin, Malaysia

Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over the Muda River Basin, Malaysia

Identifying changing precipitation extremes in Sub-Saharan Africa with gauge and satellite products

Application of MORUSES single‐layer urban canopy model in a tropical city: Results from Singapore

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