Analysis of Weather- and Climate-Related Disasters in Mountain Regions Using Different Disaster Databases

Stäubli, Anina; Nussbaumer, Samuel U.; Allen, Simon; Huggel, Christian; Argüello, María del Rosario Hidalgo; Costa, Felipe A. P. L.; Hergarten, Christian; Martínez, Rodney; Soto, Jaime; Vargas, Ruben R.; Zambrano, Eduardo; Zimmermann, Markus

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56469-2_2

Cited by 35 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…However, despite reported increases in landslide fatalities and disasters (Stäubli et al 2018), studies have been cautious to distinguish trends in actual landslide frequency, and attribution of any trends to climate change has hardly been possible. Firstly, the large-scale disaster databases upon which most landslide trends have been established may suffer from recording biases and have been shown to suffer from under-reporting of up to 2000% (Petley 2012;Kirschbaum et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

et al. 2021

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In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm’s way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation (r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides (r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

et al. 2021

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“…The potentially dangerous glacial lakes which are concentrated at the headwaters of the UIB can affect settlements, infrastructure, and agricultural fields situated in the downstream River Valleys (Stäubli et al, 2018). The ability of decision-makers on the adaption of risk mitigation measures and reduction in vulnerability will be enhanced with a detailed digital data repository of glacial lakes and GLOFs occurrences.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Hunza valley of upper Indus Basin

al.¹

2021

Int. j. adv. appl. sci.

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The UIB (Upper Indus Basin) is prone to GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods). Physical monitoring of such a large area on a regular basis is a challenging task, especially when the temporal and spatial extent of the hazard is highly variable. The purpose of this study was to map the potentially dangerous glacial lakes and simulate the associated hazard in the downward settlements using HEC-RAS in the GIS environment using Landsat 7 remote sensing data. The study was conducted in Hunza Valley of UIB, where there are several human settlements that are endangered due to the GLOF hazard. Sudden breaches in the unstable moraine dams adjoining receding glaciers may occur because of the rapid and huge accumulation of turbulent water in the glacial lakes. The ASTER GDEM (Digital Elevation Model) is utilized to detect flow accumulation of glacial hazard involving slope, elevation, and orientation of the mountain glaciers. The study results revealed that settlements of Hunza Valley are threatened by the GLOFs hazard. Keeping in view the seasonal growth of the potentially dangerous glacial lakes of Hunza Valley, a low discharge of 3500m 3 /s from a potentially dangerous glacial lake can affect 40%, whereas a moderate discharge of 5000m 3 /s can affect 60%, and a high discharge of 7000m 3 /s can affect 80% of the Shimshal village habitat. The results of the study can provide a platform for the establishment of an early warning and monitoring system to minimize the impact of future GLOFs. Accurate and comprehensive knowledge of potentially dangerous GLOFs is of utmost importance for risk management. A digital repository of GLOFs can enhance the ability to inform policymakers on the vulnerability, risk mitigation, and action/adaptation measures.

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“…The potentially dangerous glacial lakes which are concentrated at the headwaters of these river basins can affect settlements, infrastructure, and agricultural fields situated in the downstream river valley (Stäubli et al, 2018). Antecedent glaciers and glacial lakes comprehensive and accurate knowledge are of utmost importance.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial Analysis and Simulation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard in Hunza and Shyok Basins of Upper Indus Basin

Gilany¹,

Iqbal²,

Hussain³

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The UIB (Upper Indus Basin) is prone to GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods). Physical monitoring of such a large area on regular basis is a challenging task especially when the temporal and spatial extent of the hazard is highly variable. The purpose of this study was to map the potentially dangerous glacial lakes and simulate the associated hazard in the downward settlements using HEC-RAS in the GIS environment using Landsat 7 remote sensing data. The study was conducted in Hunza and Shyok sub-basins of UIB where there are several human settlements which are endangered due to the GLOF hazard. Sudden breaches in the unstable moraine dams adjoining receding glaciers may occur because of rapid and huge accumulation of turbulent water in the glacial lakes. The ASTER DEM (Digital Elevation Model) is utilized to detect flow accumulation of glacial hazard involving slope, elevation, and orientation of the mountain glaciers. The study results revealed that settlements of Hunza and Shyok basins are threatened by the GLOFs hazard. Keeping in view the seasonal growth of the potentially dangerous glacial lakes of Hunza basin, a low discharge of 3500 m3/s from potentially dangerous glacial lake can affect 40 %, whereas, a moderate discharge of 5000 m3/s can affect 60% and a high discharge of 7000 m3/s can affect 80 % of the Shimshal village habitat. In Shyok basin, a low discharge of 100 m3/s from both lakes can affect 20 %, whereas, a moderate discharge of 300 m3/s can affect 30 % and a high discharge of 500 m3/s can affect 40 % of the Barah village habitat. The results of the study can provide a platform for the establishment of an early warning and monitoring system to minimize the impact of future GLOFs. Accurate and comprehensive knowledge of potentially dangerous GLOFs is of utmost importance for risk management. A digital repository of GLOFs can enhance the ability to inform policy makers on the vulnerability, risk mitigation and action/adaptation measures.

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Analysis of Weather- and Climate-Related Disasters in Mountain Regions Using Different Disaster Databases

Cited by 35 publications

References 24 publications

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

Simulation of glacial lake outburst flood hazard in Hunza valley of upper Indus Basin

Geospatial Analysis and Simulation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard in Hunza and Shyok Basins of Upper Indus Basin

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