Analyst Dividend Forecasts and Their Usefulness to Investors

Bilinski, Pawel; Bradshaw, Mark T.

doi:10.2308/tar-2018-0518

Cited by 11 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 138 publications

(154 reference statements)

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“…I find that 12.72% of EPS forecasts are issued jointly with cash flow forecasts, which is twice the fraction of joint EPS and cash flow forecasts reported in DeFond and Hung (2003) for their period 1993–1999 and higher than 9.3% in Bilinski (2014) over the period 2000–2008. Around 4.02% of EPS estimates are issued jointly with a dividend forecast, evidence that is consistent with Bilinski and Bradshaw (2022), that is, dividend forecasts are rare in the US. Target prices are issued with 45.87% of earnings forecasts, and stock recommendations with around 6.94% of EPS estimates.…”

Section: Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Cash flow forecasts help investors to disaggregate earnings estimates into accrual and cash flow estimates allowing them to gauge earnings persistence and the likelihood of financial distress (DeFond and Hung, 2003; Givoly et al ., 2009). Dividend forecasts assess future payouts and contain incremental information compared to earnings, revenue, and cash flow estimates and help investors assess persistence of earnings (Bilinski and Bradshaw, 2022). In testing the informativeness of forecast revisions, I also look at analyst target prices and stock recommendations, which reflect an analyst's investment advice.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Bilinski

2023

Abacus

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This paper documents that, in response to the COVID‐19 pandemic, analysts increase their research activity and significantly revise their forecasts when compared to the pre‐pandemic period. Uncertainty‐adjusted forecast errors are either comparable or smaller during the pandemic compared to the pre‐pandemic period. Investor attention and price reactions to analyst forecast revisions are higher during the pandemic and the effect is stronger in periods where investors actively search for information about firms. During the pandemic, investors value analyst price discovery role more than their role in interpreting public information. Jointly, the results suggest that analysts play an important information intermediation role during the COVID‐19 pandemic.

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Section: Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

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confidence: 99%

Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Bilinski

2023

Abacus

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“…The enabling role of nonfinancial information on financial performance has been explored by considering alternative perspectives and time horizons because of the need to distinguish between ex-ante evaluation and ex-post analysis (Bilinski and Bradshaw, 2022; Krische, 2005). At the same time, accounting scholars also considered differences between evaluations made by internal stakeholders and external stakeholders such as analysts and rating agencies (Christensen et al , 2022; Kimbrough et al , 2022).…”

Section: Literature Review and Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

Do sustainability reporting standards affect analysts’ forecast accuracy?

Pizzi,

Caputo,

de Nuccio

2024

SAMPJ

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Purpose This study aims to contribute to the emerging debate about materiality with novel insights about the signaling effects related to the disclosure of environmental, social and governance (ESG) information using the guidelines released by the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB). Design/methodology/approach An empirical assessment using panel data analysis was built to evaluate the relationship between sustainability reporting standards and analysts’ forecast accuracy. Findings The analysis revealed that the proliferation of sustainability reports prepared on mandatory or voluntary basis mitigated the signaling effects related to the disclosure of ESG information by companies. Furthermore, the additional analysis conducted considering sustainability reporting quality and ESG performance revealed the existence of mixed effects on analysts’ forecasts accuracy. Therefore, the insights highlighted the need to consider a cautionary approach in evaluating the contribution of ESG data to financial evaluations. Practical implications The practical implications consist of identifying criticisms related to disclosing ESG information by listed companies. In detail, the analysis underlines the need to enhance reporting standards’ interoperability to support the development of more accurate analysis by investors and financial experts. Social implications The analysis reveals increasing attention investors pay to socially responsible initiatives, confirming that financial markets consider sustainability reporting as a strategic driver to engage with stakeholders and investors. Originality/value This research represents one of the first attempts to explore differences between GRI and SASB using an empirical approach.

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Book Value Forecast Quality: Financial Versus Nonfinancial Firms

Caylor,

McCoy,

Street

2024

J Corp Accounting Finance

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This study investigates the quality and usefulness of analysts’ book value forecasts for financial firms relative to nonfinancial firms. We examine whether forecast properties (accuracy, bias, and dispersion) of book value forecasts and the market reaction to unexpected book value surprises differ between financial and nonfinancial firms. We find that book value forecasts are more accurate, less biased, and less dispersed for financial firms compared to nonfinancial firms. In addition, we show that these results are not simply a result of differences in earnings per share (EPS) forecast quality. We also provide evidence that book value forecasts are incrementally helpful to analysts in forecasting earnings for financial firms. In addition, we find evidence that the stock price drift following an earnings announcement is more pronounced when book value per share (BPS) surprises are considered in addition to EPS surprises. However, this finding only holds for financial firms. We find that this delayed reaction can form the basis for a profitable trading strategy.

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Analyst Dividend Forecasts and Their Usefulness to Investors

Cited by 11 publications

References 138 publications

Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Analyst Research Activity During the COVID‐19 Pandemic

Do sustainability reporting standards affect analysts’ forecast accuracy?

Book Value Forecast Quality: Financial Versus Nonfinancial Firms

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