Analytic Modeling of Insurgencies

Abstract

Legacy force-on-force models are symmetrical; they reflect the fact that the dynamics of both sides in the conflict is governed by similar rules. These models have also traditionally focused on the physical aspects of armed conflicts-fire, attrition, detection, movement, logistics, etc. Insurgency models are different in two key aspects: (a) they are asymmetrical and (b) they contain, in addition to the physical aspects, significant cognitive, social, cultural, political and economic factors. The reason for the asymmetry is the way insurgents evolve and operate, and the emergence of non-physical factors is due to the major role of civilians in such conflicts. This article focuses on analytic modeling of insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, describing both the physical and non-physical components of such armed conflicts.