Analytic solution of the susceptible-infective epidemic model with state-dependent contact rates and different intervention policies

Yarmand, Hamed; Ivy, Julie S.

doi:10.1177/0037549713479052

Cited by 4 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In Yarmand and Ivy 64 the closed-from analytic solution of the stochastic SI model with state-dependent contact rates is given. In that paper, the impact of different intervention policies is related to the contact rate.…”

Section: Research Question and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In that paper, the impact of different intervention policies is related to the contact rate. Here we use the same model developed in Yarmand and Ivy 64 with the addition of the cost of each intervention policy and the reward associated with remaining uninfected. We consider both full and partial adherence to interventions among individuals which, as in Yarmand and Ivy, 64 are represented by different intervention policies.…”

Section: Research Question and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Optimal intervention strategies for an epidemic: A household view

Yarmand

Ivy

2013

SIMULATION

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this research, we identify optimal intervention strategies at the household level in case of an epidemic. We consider an affected household (a household with one initial infective member) and model the effect of different intervention policies, which involve vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis, isolation, and treatment, on disease spread using a variation of Kermack-McKendrick (KM) models. Both full and partial adherence to interventions are considered. An implementation cost is assumed for each intervention policy. We refer to a collection of intervention policies as an intervention strategy. A reward is associated with susceptible members who remain uninfected. We define the effect of the implemented intervention strategy as the total reward earned by all members over the time horizon. We then identify the most cost-effective intervention strategies. In addition, we incorporate a budgetary constraint for the household and find the efficient frontier for the total reward over different upper bounds on the household budget.

show abstract

Section: Research Question and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Research Question and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal intervention strategies for an epidemic: A household view

Yarmand

Ivy

2013

SIMULATION

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Examples of capability assessment strategies developed by the PERRCs included a toolkit to evaluate Medical Reserve Corps performance 34 and studies examining how to better use after-action reports [35][36][37] and exercises [38][39][40][41][42] for performance improvement. PERRC research pursued modeling of various PHP system phenomena, including mass evacuation, 43 the impact of different vaccine distribution strategies, 44,45 infectious disease progression in a population, 46,47 and effects of variation in mitigation strategies, such as the impact of different school closure approaches. 31,[45][46][47][48][49][50] Broad incorporation of modeling findings into policy and practice could reduce system performance variability by helping to standardize guidance for preparedness planning.…”

Section: Realization Of the Perrc Program Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…PERRC research pursued modeling of various PHP system phenomena, including mass evacuation, 43 the impact of different vaccine distribution strategies, 44,45 infectious disease progression in a population, 46,47 and effects of variation in mitigation strategies, such as the impact of different school closure approaches. 31,[45][46][47][48][49][50] Broad incorporation of modeling findings into policy and practice could reduce system performance variability by helping to standardize guidance for preparedness planning.…”

Section: Realization Of the Perrc Program Objectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Centers: Using a Public Health Systems Approach to Improve All-Hazards Preparedness and Response

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In 2008, at the request of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Institute of Medicine (IOM) prepared a report identifying knowledge gaps in public health systems preparedness and emergency response and recommending near-term priority research areas. In accordance with the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act mandating new public health systems research for preparedness and emergency response, CDC provided competitive awards establishing nine Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Centers (PERRCs) in accredited U.S. schools of public health. The PERRCs conducted research in four IOM-recommended priority areas: (1) enhancing the usefulness of public health preparedness and response (PHPR) training, (2) creating and maintaining sustainable preparedness and response systems, (3) improving PHPR communications, and (4) identifying evaluation criteria and metrics to improve PHPR for all hazards. The PERRCs worked closely with state and local public health, community partners, and advisory committees to produce practice-relevant research findings. PERRC research has generated more than 130 peer-reviewed publications and nearly 80 practice and policy tools and recommendations with the potential to significantly enhance our nation's PHPR to all hazards and that highlight the need for further improvements in public health systems.

show abstract

“…Finally, Yarmand 23,24 and Yarmand et al 25,26 used a compartmental simulation model to analyze the impact of different control policies on the spread of H1N1 and find cost-effective control policies. In a later work, Yarmand and Ivy 27 followed an analytic approach to model the spread of epidemics and impact of different intervention policies. Also Yarmand at al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying optimal mitigation strategies for responding to a mild influenza epidemic

2013

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Mathematical models have been developed to simulate influenza epidemics to help public health officials evaluate different control policies. In these models, often severe influenza epidemics with a considerable mortality rate are considered. However, as was the case for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, some of the influenza epidemics are mild with insignificant mortality rates. In the case of a mild epidemic, the cost of different control policies becomes an important decision factor in addition to disease-related outcomes such as the attack rate.We develop a continuous-time simulation model for the spread of a mild influenza epidemic based on the SEIR model (an epidemiological model with four classes: susceptible, exposed, infective, and recovered) which includes different interventions. To determine the epidemic mitigation policy with the minimum cost, we also develop an optimization model with two decision variables, vaccination and self-isolation fractions, and an upper-bound constraint for the attack rate. We use this model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different mitigation policies. Furthermore, we integrate the simulation and optimization models to identify the optimal mitigation policy. Finally, we conduct sensitivity analysis on the key input parameters to ensure robust results.The optimal policy depends on the target population and, as our results show, in general is a combination of vaccination and self-isolation. Further, for low (high) levels of intervention, vaccination (self-isolation) is incrementally more cost-effective. Therefore, public health officials should concentrate on vaccination at the beginning of the epidemic. However, if the epidemic continues to spread, they should promote self-isolation as a more effective intervention.

show abstract

Analytic solution of the susceptible-infective epidemic model with state-dependent contact rates and different intervention policies

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

Optimal intervention strategies for an epidemic: A household view

Optimal intervention strategies for an epidemic: A household view

Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Centers: Using a Public Health Systems Approach to Improve All-Hazards Preparedness and Response

Identifying optimal mitigation strategies for responding to a mild influenza epidemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About