Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: The case of botulinum toxin in milk

Abstract

We developed a mathematical model of a cows-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility that is the victim of a deliberate release of botulinum toxin. Because centralized storage and processing lead to substantial dilution of the toxin, a minimum amount of toxin is required for the release to do damage. Irreducible uncertainties regarding the dose-response curve prevent us from quantifying the minimum effective release. However, if terrorists can obtain enough toxin, and this may well be possible, then rapid distribution and consumption result in several hundred thousand poisoned individuals if detection from early symptomatics is not timely. Timely and specific in-process testing has the potential to eliminate the threat of this scenario at a cost of <1 cent per gallon and should be pursued aggressively. Investigation of improving the toxin inactivation rate of heat pasteurization without sacrificing taste or nutrition is warranted.bioterrorism ͉ mathematical modeling A mong bioterror attacks not involving genetic engineering, the three scenarios that arguably pose the greatest threats to humans are a smallpox attack, an airborne anthrax attack, and a release of botulinum toxin in cold drinks (1). The methods of dissemination in these three scenarios are, respectively, the person-to-person spread of a contagious disease, the outdoor dispersal of a highly durable and lethal agent, and the large-scale storage and production and rapid widespread distribution and consumption of beverages containing the most poisonous substance known. The first two scenarios have been the subject of recent systems modeling studies (2-5), and here we present a detailed systems analysis of the third scenario. For concreteness, we consider a release in the milk supply, which, in addition to its symbolic value as a target, is characterized by the rapid distribution of 20 billion gallons per year in the U.S.; indeed, two natural Salmonella outbreaks in the dairy industry each infected Ϸ200,000 people (6). Nonetheless, our methods are applicable to similar food products, such as fruit and vegetable juices, canned foods (e.g., processed tomato products), and perhaps grainbased and other foods possessing the bow-tie-shaped supply chain pictured in Fig. 1. The ModelThe mathematical model considers the flow of milk through a nine-stage cows-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility (Fig. 1). Supporting Appendix, which is published as supporting information on the PNAS web site, contains a detailed mathematical formulation of the model, a discussion of the modeling assumptions, and the specification of parameter values, some of which are listed in Table 1. The supply-chain parameter values are representative of the California dairy industry, which produces Ͼ20% of the nation's milk (California dairy facts, www.dairyforum.org͞cdf.html, accessed on May 18, 2004). In our model, cows are milked twice daily, and the milk from each farm is picked up once per day by a 5,500-gallon truc...

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