Analyzing Emergency Capacity Shortage in Urban CI Based on Scenario Presuming Method

Abstract

Abstract-CI (Critical infrastructure) is a kind of complex and huge network system, and its operating failure will cause serious impact on national interest. Evaluating emergency capacity from the perspective of capacity shortage helps directly discover the weak links of response system, and improve the effectiveness of capacity evaluation. Under the background of scenario uncertainty, it's hard to predict disaster scenarios in the future. That causes the difficulty of presuming scenarios for capacity shortage analysis. This paper proposes a presuming-based method for analyzing capacity shortage in terms of capacity shortage evaluation and identification. This method solves the scenario uncertainty of capacity shortage analysis by scenario design and reconstruction. Finally, a case study is proposed to explain the rationality and effectiveness of the method.