Analyzing Injury Severity of School Bus Crashes considering Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity Using Random Parameters Ordered Probit Model

Abstract

Ensuring the safety of students is a multifaceted task, extending beyond the mere design of vehicles. It involves analyzing crash data related to school buses, which plays a critical role in preventing injuries and fatalities of children both in and around these vehicles. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 1 gathers comprehensive data on a wide range of school bus-related crashes, from minor incidents to serious and fatal crashes. The school bus crash data not only educates parents and caregivers but also supports various prevention campaigns. The objective of this study is to investigate the different risk factors that influence the severity of injuries in school bus crashes, considering variations in time and location. To achieve this, a Random thresholds random parameters ordered probit (RPOP) model is used, which is particularly effective in identifying and accounting for unobserved variables that might affect the outcomes. Moreover, the model results suggest that springtime and highway locations significantly impact crash outcomes, considering crash details, vehicle information, and driver-passenger characteristics. These findings enhance our comprehension of the diverse factors that contribute to school bus crashes. This improved understanding aids in the development of effective strategies to reduce the severity of injuries resulting from such crashes.