Analyzing the Degree of Social-Economic Transformation of Displaced Community Using Probit Model: A Case Analysis

Abstract

The 1998 Poso conflict caused many fatalities, hundreds of missing people, loss of property, and the decline of social order and economic life. The conflict has changed the social and economic order of the society, and most people uprooted from their hometown into new places. Thus, this study aims to analyze the degree of social and economic transformation in one decade after the conflict by examining the intervention role of the government, private sector and NGOs on the post-conflict socioeconomic transformation in some refugee locations as the District of Poso, Central Sulawesi. By involving 98 household heads as respondents, and using Probit model as the analytical tool, the results reveal that a mass population displacement has caused a sense of prolonged trauma among the minorities. Moreover, the results show that the process of social and economic transformation takes place simultaneously. Statistically, there are no significant impact of natural factors and government intervention on the process of social transformation in the new settlement, while the intervention of the private and non-governmental organizations shows a positive and insignificant influence. In terms of economic transformation, the natural factors and government intervention are proved to have no significant effect on the process of economic transformation, while the private sector and non-governmental intervention is capable of providing a positive and insignificant impact on economic transformation. The study implies for decision makers to make better direction in development planning, and funding for displaced people, and to encourage and provide higher support to the private sector and NGOs.