Analyzing the impact of a real-life outbreak simulator on pandemic mitigation: An epidemiological modeling study

Specht, Ivan; Sani, Kian; Loftness, Bryn C.; Hoffman, Curtis; Gionet, Gabrielle; Bronson, Amy; Marshall, John; Decker, Craig; Bailey, Landen; Siyanbade, Tomi; Kemball, Molly; Pickett, Brett E.; Hanage, William P.; Brown, Todd; Sabeti, Pardis C.; Colubri, Andrés

doi:10.1016/j.patter.2022.100572

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 25 publications

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“…For example, it has been shown that the risk of infection for an individual increases with the number of contacts they have [1], the locations they visit [2], and the length of their visit [3], and that the interactions of individuals between different locations hinders virus containment efforts [4][5][6][7]. As a result, we would expect SARS-CoV-2 transmission to be higher between geographic locations that have higher human connectivity [8,9]. Reconstructing the interaction networks and temporal dynamics between these "high connectivity" locations can illuminate the sources of emerging waves and help inform intervention strategies and at-risk populations [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Matteson,

Hassler,

Kurzban

et al. 2023

Cell

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Matteson,

Hassler,

Kurzban

et al. 2023

Cell

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Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Matteson

Hassler

Kurzban

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of 'local' when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

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Emulation of epidemics via Bluetooth-based virtual safe virus spread: Experimental setup, software, and data

et al. 2022

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We describe an experimental setup and a currently running experiment for evaluating how physical interactions over time and between individuals affect the spread of epidemics. Our experiment involves the voluntary use of the Safe Blues Android app by participants at The University of Auckland (UoA) City Campus in New Zealand. The app spreads multiple virtual safe virus strands via Bluetooth depending on the physical proximity of the subjects. The evolution of the virtual epidemics is recorded as they spread through the population. The data is presented as a real-time (and historical) dashboard. A simulation model is applied to calibrate strand parameters. Participants’ locations are not recorded, but participants are rewarded based on the duration of participation within a geofenced area, and aggregate participation numbers serve as part of the data. The 2021 experimental data is available as an open-source anonymized dataset, and once the experiment is complete, the remaining data will be made available. This paper outlines the experimental setup, software, subject-recruitment practices, ethical considerations, and dataset description. The paper also highlights current experimental results in view of the lockdown that started in New Zealand at 23:59 on August 17, 2021. The experiment was initially planned in the New Zealand environment, expected to be free of COVID and lockdowns after 2020. However, a COVID Delta strain lockdown shuffled the cards and the experiment is currently extended into 2022.

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Analyzing the impact of a real-life outbreak simulator on pandemic mitigation: An epidemiological modeling study

Cited by 3 publications

References 25 publications

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Emulation of epidemics via Bluetooth-based virtual safe virus spread: Experimental setup, software, and data

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