Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context

Guédon, Yann; Legave, Jean Michel

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.08.010

Cited by 71 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Some authors have published flowering apple advancements during the recent past in France , Germany (Blanke and Kunz, 2009;Chmielewski et al, 2004), Japan (Fujisawa and Kobayashi, (Eccel et al, 2009) and Central Europe (Legave et al, 2013). Moreover, other studies have verified flowering advancements in the recent past for apple together with pear and other temperate fruits in South Africa (Grab and Craparo, 2011), Australia (Darbyshire et al, 2013), New Zealand (Clothier et al, 2012), Germany (Blanke and Kunz, 2009;Estrella et al, 2007), France (Guedon and Legave, 2008), and Central Europe (Menzel et al, 2006). Other studies using climate model projections showed also advancements of apple or other temperate fruits: apple in North Italy (Eccel et al, 2009) and Germany (Hoffmann and Rath, 2013), fruit trees in general in Central Europe (Trnka et al, 2011), grapevine in France for the end of the Century (García de Cortázar Atauri, 2006) and in Australia for mid century (Webb et al, 2007;Darbyshire et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin

Funes

Aranda

Biel

et al. 2016

Agricultural Water Management

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin

Funes

Aranda

Biel

et al. 2016

Agricultural Water Management

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“…Many countries have already documented earlier bloom times for a variety of plants (Ellwood et al 2013;Grab and Craparo 2011;Guédon and Legave 2008;and others). Earlier bloom times will in turn affect pollination rates as insects and crops adjust to climate change at different rates.…”

Section: Fruit Crop Vulnerabilities and Expected Changes In The Northmentioning

confidence: 99%

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

et al. 2017

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Specialty fruit crops represent a substantial portion of the value of agricultural production in the Pacific Northwest. Climate change may threaten water sources, lengthen the dry season, raise temperatures during both the winter chilling period and the growing season, and facilitate the spread of fungal diseases and insects. Such changes have the potential to substantially reduce net returns due to increased input costs and altered yields and product quality. Many management strategies that are already being used to prolong growing seasons in marginal production areas and to improve production and quality in established production regions may also be useful as adaptation strategies under a changing climate. These strategies mostly involve moderating temperatures and controlling or compensating for mismatches between phenology and seasonal weather conditions.

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“…It is not unreasonable to link this event to the climatic discontinuity concurrently recorded by many sources in the northern Mediterranean region and central Europe. For example, discontinuities were observed by independent analyses in two Italian series, one meteorological (Maugeri et al 2006) and the other phenological (Barbi et al 2007), and in apple flowering series from France and Switzerland (Guédon and Legave 2008). A close link between phenology and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) has already been observed (Chmielewski and Rötzer 2001;Scheifinger et al 2002;Menzel 2003;Aasa et al 2004;Ahas and Aasa 2006;Črepinšek et al 2006).…”

Section: Phenological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 85%

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation

et al. 2009

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In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.

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Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context

Cited by 71 publications

References 22 publications

Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin

Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin

Specialty fruit production in the Pacific Northwest: adaptation strategies for a changing climate

Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation

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