Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; Finney, Mark A.; Vance-Borland, Ken; Vaillant, Nicole M.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2014.09.017

Cited by 63 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Consistent with other studies, this study showed that increasing the area of fuel treatment in a landscape resulted in a decrease in future wildfire extent and burn probability to assets (Ager et al 2007;Finney 2007;King et al 2008;Boer et al 2009;Wu et al 2013;Ager et al 2014;Penman et al 2014;Price et al 2015b;Salis et al 2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Bentley

Penman

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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Abstract. Wildfires are a natural disturbance in many ecosystems, creating challenges for land management agencies who need to simultaneously reduce risk to people and maintain ecological values. Here we use the PHOENIX RapidFire fire behaviour simulator to compare fuel treatment strategies that meet the twin objectives of reducing wildfire risk to human settlements and a fire sensitive endangered species, the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) in south-eastern Australia. The local koala population is in decline and a conservation management plan is being prepared to exclude wildfire for a 10-year period to assist with population recovery. Twelve scenarios developed by the land management agencies were compared using four indicators: wildfire size; burn probability; impact from exposure to fire; and treatment cost. Compared with the current risk setting, three treatment scenarios were found to reduce wildfire size and burn probability concurrently to both people and koalas. These strategies worked by increasing the landscape area treated, which came with increased financial cost. However, the impact from exposure to fire for both property and koala habitat remains high. Additional complementary strategies beyond landscape fuel reductions are needed to reduce impact from exposure in the event of a wildfire.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Bentley

Penman

2017

Int. J. Wildland Fire

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“…We used a response function (RF) to approximate structure susceptibility (potential losses) using fire intensity level model outputs [36]. To generate a customized RF for residential houses in the study area, we used the Delphi method [69].…”

Section: Expert Judgement Of Structure Susceptibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fire intensity is the main causative factor of home loss given that a fire reaches a housing structure, and therefore in the questionnaire, potential value loss of structures (as a percentage) was associated to four different fire intensity class response functions (intensity levels of FIL 1 , FIL 2 -FIL 4 , FIL 5 -FIL 7 , and FIL 8 -FIL 20 ). The four fire intensity classes were selected considering previous studies and the capabilities of existing geospatial tools to integrate the fire modeling outputs with potential fire effects [36,49]. In the first round of the questionnaire process, the experts filled the questionnaire anonymously according to their own personal experience to reduce the effect of dominant individuals.…”

Section: Expert Judgement Of Structure Susceptibilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…RFs were used to approximate fire effects (losses) to different fire intensity classes. Then, fire effects and respective burning probabilities were considered to estimate the expected net value change [36]. Expected net value change is a risk-neutral measure in terms of gain or loss expressed on a percentage basis, and allows quantitative wildfire risk assessment for multiple valued resources and human assets [33].…”

Section: Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

Alcasena

Salis

Ager

et al. 2017

Forests

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Abstract:We assessed potential economic losses and transmission to residential houses from wildland fires in a rural area of central Navarra (Spain). Expected losses were quantified at the individual structure level (n = 306) in 14 rural communities by combining fire model predictions of burn probability and fire intensity with susceptibility functions derived from expert judgement. Fire exposure was estimated by simulating 50,000 fire events that replicated extreme (97th percentile) historical fire weather conditions. Spatial ignition probabilities were used in the simulations to account for non-random ignitions, and were estimated from a fire occurrence model generated with an artificial neural network. The results showed that ignition probability explained most of spatial variation in risk, with economic value of structures having only a minor effect. Average expected loss to residential houses from a single wildfire event in the study area was 7955€, and ranged from a low of 740 to the high of 28,725€. Major fire flow-paths were analyzed to understand fire transmission from surrounding municipalities and showed that incoming fires from the north exhibited strong pathways into the core of the study area, and fires spreading from the south had the highest likelihood of reaching target residential structures from the longest distances (>5 km). Community firesheds revealed the scale of risk to communities and extended well beyond administrative boundaries. The results provided a quantitative risk assessment that can be used by insurance companies and local landscape managers to prioritize and allocate investments to treat wildland fuels and identify clusters of high expected loss within communities. The methodological framework can be extended to other fire-prone southern European Union countries where communities are threatened by large wildland fires.

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“…Significant recent improvements in spatial risk analysis help prioritize and target areas where fuel treatments are more likely to be effective and efficient at mitigating risk [25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Embracing risk management and upstream planning (before a fire ignites) has the benefits of buying time and expanding option space once an ignition occurs [32] and is consistent with principles of effective fire management planning developed using the best available science and information [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies

Riley

Thompson

Scott³

et al. 2018

Resources

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Abstract:The complexity and demands of wildland firefighting in the western U.S. have increased over recent decades due to factors including the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, lengthening fire seasons associated with climate change, and changes in vegetation due to past fire suppression and timber harvest. In light of these changes, the use of more wildland fire on the landscape could reduce fuels and form barriers to the spread of future fires while performing forest restoration in some areas. However, the risks, costs and benefits of changing fire response strategy have not been quantified. Here, we identify gaps regarding the ability to simulate alternative wildfire suppression strategies, due to a number of factors including limited data collected on fireline construction, as well as synergies between firefighting resources and resource effectiveness. We present a fire management continuum: at one end lies full suppression of all fires under all circumstances, and at the opposite end lies no suppression of any fires regardless of location or time in season, with a wide array of managed fire options falling in between. Next, we demonstrate the proof-of-concept using a stochastic fire simulation model, FSim, to simulate two alternative fire suppression strategies close to opposite ends of this continuum for the Sierra National Forest of California: (1) business-as-usual, which equates to nearly full fire suppression; and (2) full suppression of human-caused fires and no suppression actions on lightning-caused fires. Results indicate that fire management strategy can substantially affect the number of large fires and landscape burn probabilities, both of which were shown to increase under the second scenario. However, temporal feedbacks are expected to play an important role: we show that increases in burned area substantially limit ignition potential and the extent of subsequent fires within the first five to ten years, especially under the second scenario. While subject to current data gaps and limitations in fire modeling, the methodology presented here can be used to simulate a number of alternative fire suppression strategies, including decisions to suppress or not suppress fires based on location, time of season or other factors. This method also provides basic inputs needed to estimate risks, costs and benefits of various alternative suppression strategies in future work. In future work, uncertainties resulting from current limitations in knowledge can be addressed using techniques such as scenario planning in order to provide land managers with a set of possible fire outcomes.

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Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Cited by 63 publications

References 42 publications

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Is there an inherent conflict in managing fire for people and conservation?

Assessing Wildland Fire Risk Transmission to Communities in Northern Spain

A Model-Based Framework to Evaluate Alternative Wildfire Suppression Strategies

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