Analyzing the Variability in Low-Flow Projections under GCM CMIP5 Scenarios

Ghafouri‐Azar, Mona; Bae, Deg‐Hyo

doi:10.1007/s11269-019-02396-4

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Projected daily streamflow values under SSP scenarios 126, 245, and 585 were analyzed to determine low and high flow event percentiles using the Flow Duration Curve (FDC). An FDC, which ranks flow data over a specific period by magnitude and delineates the percentage of time each flow level is exceeded [29], serves as a critical tool in hydrological assessments. It is particularly useful in water resource planning, such as the design of hydropower systems or water supply infrastructures, and in the evaluation of water quality [64].…”

Section: Low Flow and High Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several studies indicate that climate change will have an impact on hydrological conditions and water resources [28][29][30][31][32], These alterations could potentially result in a decrease or increase in the risk of drought or flood. For instance, Meresa et al [33] examined future shifts in mean and low flows (Q95) across 37 catchments in the Republic of Ireland, observing substantial declines in annual low flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Haji Mohammadi,

Shafaie,

Nazari Samani

et al. 2024

Water

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Climate is one of the main drivers of hydrological processes, and climate change has caused worldwide effects such as water scarcity, frequent floods and intense droughts. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the water balance components, high flow and low flow stream conditions in a semi-arid basin in Iran. For this reason, the climate outputs of the CanESM5 model under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 were spatially downscaled by the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The hydrological process was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Key findings include a 74% increase in evapotranspiration, a reduction by up to 9.6% in surface runoff, and variations in discharge by up to 53.6%. The temporal analysis of snow melting changes revealed an increase in the volume of snow melting during winter months and a reduction in the volume during spring. The projected climate change is expected to cause notable variations in high and low flow events, particularly under the SSP585 scenario, which anticipates significant peaks in flow rates. This comprehensive analysis underscores the pressing need for adaptive strategies in water resource management to mitigate the anticipated impacts of climate variability.

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Section: Low Flow and High Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Haji Mohammadi,

Shafaie,

Nazari Samani

et al. 2024

Water

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“…The 13 GCM scenarios of RCP 4.5 used in this study are CMCC-CM, CESM1-BGC, MRI-CGCM3, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A-MR, CMCC-CMS, NorESM1-M, GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and CanESM2, which are the first 13 GCMs of Table 1. The description and characteristics of the mentioned GCMs are shown in Ghafouri-Azar and Bae [34]. More information about this procedure was explained in Cannon et al [35] and Eum and Cannon [13].…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Water Cycle Components on Streamflow in a Changing Climate of Korea: Historical and Future Trends

Ghafouri‐Azar

Bae

2020

Sustainability

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This paper investigates the historical and future trends in water balance components and their impacts on streamflow. The trend analyses were applied to the daily climatic and hydrologic variables from 109 subbasins in Korea during the historical period and future period obtained by a multimodel ensemble of 13 global circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). A calibrated hydrologic model, the precipitation-streamflow modeling system (PRMS) model, was applied to obtain hydrologic data. The results revealed apparent trends in streamflow, with increases in spring and decreases in the other seasons during the historical period. The reduction (or increase) in the amount of streamflow was counterbalanced by the reduction (or increase) in precipitation, groundwater, and soil moisture, which was mainly impacted by the increase (or reduction) in actual evapotranspiration. However, opposite trends are projected for the future period for streamflow and water cycle components, in which spring and winter are projected to have increasing trends mostly counterbalanced by the decreasing trends in precipitation and groundwater. The reasons for the reduction in streamflow include elevated evapotranspiration compared to precipitation, reduced soil moisture, and a significant decrease in groundwater recharge. In addition, the results of the seasonal variability among basins revealed higher variability in summer for the historical period and in winter for the future period, with maximum variability in the Sumjin River basin, indicating that streamflow fluctuated more strongly in the Sumjin River basin during the historical and future periods.

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Nitrogen sources, processes, and associated impacts of climate and land-use changes in a coastal China watershed: Insights from the INCA-N model

Ervinia

Huang

Zhang

2020

Marine Pollution Bulletin

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Analyzing the Variability in Low-Flow Projections under GCM CMIP5 Scenarios

Cited by 5 publications

References 15 publications

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

Assessing Future Hydrological Variability in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Basin: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model Projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Climate Scenarios

The Impacts of Water Cycle Components on Streamflow in a Changing Climate of Korea: Historical and Future Trends

Nitrogen sources, processes, and associated impacts of climate and land-use changes in a coastal China watershed: Insights from the INCA-N model

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