Analyzing Upper Secondary Education Dropout in Latin America through a Cohort Approach

Abstract

This study examines recent trends and factors in school dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin America. The methodology employs repeated cross sections of data to track the life cycle path of cohorts of individuals in 18 countries. A key finding is that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the region, dropout has remained persistently high, despite relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. To explain dropout trends, the study examines the impact of three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for entering upper secondary; (b) the macroeconomic environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the returns to schooling. We show that an important factor in persistently high dropout rates has been the higher numbers of students from poor socioeconomic backgrounds reaching upper secondary. In addition, high returns to education have been a pull factor into schooling, while, especially in countries where the majority of youth dropout prior to upper secondary, the data confirm an apparent substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing employment opportunities. The findings confirm the growing policy focus on upper secondary across Latin America and suggest implications for the policy agenda.

A methodology to design, develop, and evaluate machine learning models for predicting dropout in school systems: the case of Chile

“…Contemplating the risk factors identified previously (Section 1.3 ), we propose to codify each student’s history in the school system through a continuous range of years in a single vector of data. This is because each trajectory comprises the student situation at multiple levels (school, family, among others), and changes and accumulation of events are relevant to predict dropout (Kattan & Székely, 2017 ). Thus, we can identify clearly both dropping out and protective factors throughout the educational cycle after 12 years.…”

“…• Extra-school level considers community factors, e.g., the geographic location of residences, families and the condition of their housing, access to playgrounds, green areas, or "urbanity" (Zaff et al, 2017), having a network of high-achieving and aspirational peers (Hirakawa & Taniguchi, 2021). And it also includes contextual factors, understood as potential "pull factors" that incentivize early job attachment (Kattan & Székely, 2017).…”

Causas del fracaso escolar: Un análisis desde la perspectiva del profesorado y del alumnado

“…Lo que vendría a señalar que la «responsabilidad», entendida como el valor que se da a la enseñanza, se considera una posible causa importante de fracaso escolar. A la vista de estos resultados, se podrían indicar algunas de las propuestas para involucrar a la familia en el centro escolar, por ejemplo: un contacto frecuente con la familia; mayor apoyo de los servicios sociales para ayudar a los déficits económicos y laborales; y una formación en competencias parentales que eviten el desapego (Álvarez y Martínez, 2016;Márquez, 2016;Serrano y Rodríguez, 2016;Méndez y Cerezo, 2018;Kattan y Székely, 2017).…”

Presentación Educación media superior en Iberoamérica: aportaciones a las prácticas y políticas educativas de la región

“…No obstante la importancia que reviste la problemática actual de la EMS, la investigación educativa ha indagado poco sobre ella. Algunos análisis estadísticos han revelado persistentes niveles de deserción, bajas tasas de inscripción, retención y graduación en la región iberoamericana (Busso, Bassi & Muñoz, 2013;Cárdenas, De Hoyos & Székely, 2015;Kattan & Székely, 2017). Estos estudios, aunque útiles, no pueden dar cuenta de las complejidades al interior de las escuelas y del proceso enseñanza-aprendizaje, las cuales son condicionadas por características históricas, sociales y culturales.…”