Analyzing Wildfire Suppression Difficulty in Relation to Protection Demand

Abstract

In recent years, the field of wildfire risk management has seen dramatic advances. One notable improvement is in the realm of pre-fire suppression response planning, in particular the expansion from the assessment of risks posed by fire to the assessment of opportunities to effectively manage fire. Such proactive assessment and planning is critical to ensure that suppression response strategies and tactics are more likely to be safe and efficient. In this paper we will review the state-of-the-art in wildfire suppression planning, and illustrate application of advanced planning tools on a fire-prone landscape in Colorado, USA. Specifically we will use geospatial tools to quantify a composite index of suppression difficulty, and map this layer in relation to two key protection priorities that often drive suppression response decisions: built structures, and high value watersheds. We will discuss how our assessment results can inform planning and prioritization efforts, and offer suggestions for future research.

Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality

“…One key innovation in this regard is the development of potential wildfire operational delineations (PODs) whose boundaries are relevant to fire operations (e.g. roads, natural barriers, fuel transitions) within which risks and opportunities can be summarized (Thompson et al 2016a, Dunn et al 2017, Thompson et al 2018b. By aligning POD boundaries with high probability potential control locations (figures 2(a), (b)), our intent is to increase the likelihood managers can effectively manage fire in accordance with values at risk.…”

Wildfire Response Performance Measurement: Current and Future Directions

“…The second and third recommendations relate to the ATDC and FLE KPIs, with a specific intent of better characterizing probability of success. To do so, these next-generation KPIs would incorporate the following recently developed tools and data products: (1) an atlas of potential control locations generated using historical fire perimeters [46]; (2) a related layer quantifying suppression difficulty across the landscape based on factors including fire behavior, topography, and road density [47][48][49]; and (3) a gridded geospatial product depicting daily severe fire weather potential, which is calculated by combining modeled Energy Release Component and Burning Index values [50]. In the case of the FLE KPI, this would enable a transition from evaluation of outcomes (e.g., did the line hold or burn over) to evaluation of decisions around the location and timing of line construction (e.g., was the line built in an area of low or high control opportunity, and was it likely to engage the fire under moderate or extreme burning conditions).…”

Forest Roads and Operational Wildfire Response Planning

“…The intent of this communication is to illustrate by example how forest roa considered in fire planning, leveraging the authors' collective experience workin fire managers to deliver decision support. We focus on two interrelated products u the National Forest System and adjacent lands throughout the western USA: (1) po wildland fire operational delineations (PODs) and (2) potential control locations ( PODs are spatial units delineated by fire managers using potential fire control fe (e.g., roads, ridge tops, streams, fuel transitions), within which relevant informat ecology, forest conditions, fire behavior, suppression difficulty, and wildfire risk summarized and then combined with local expertise to define strategic wildfire res objectives [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. PODs development typically takes place in workshop setting blend fire analytics with local expertise [31,32].…”