Background
Extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) after curative hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a poor prognosis. We investigated the features of EHR and identified its predictive factors.
Methods
This retrospective study included 398 treatment-naive patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC at two tertiary hospitals. Multivariate analysis via Cox-regression was performed to identify the variables associated with EHR.
Results
EHR was diagnosed in 94 patients (23.6%) over a median follow-up period of 5.92 years, most commonly in the lungs (42.6%). The 5-/10-year cumulative rates of HCC recurrence and EHR were 63.0%/75.6% and 18.1%/35.0%, respectively.. The median time to EHR was 2.06 years. Intrahepatic HCC recurrence was not observed in 38.3% of patients on EHR diagnosis. On multivariate analysis, bile duct invasion, tumor necrosis, sum of tumor size > 7 cm, macrovascular invasion, first recurrence free survival < 1 year, and serum alpha fetoprotein > 400 IU/mL during recurrence were predictive of EHR. Four risk levels and their respective EHR were defined: very low risk, 2-/5-year, 0.7%/14.2%; low risk, 2-/5-year, 6.4%/31.0%; intermediate risk, 2-/5-year, 21.9%/73.1%; and high risk, 2-/3-year, 70.8%/100.0%.
Conclusion
Our predictive model clarifies the clinical course of EHR and could improve the follow-up strategy to improve outcomes.