Anomalous behavior of Indian summer monsoon in the warming environment

Naidu, C. V.; Satyanarayana, G.; Rao, L M; Durgalakshmi, K.; Raju, A. Dharma; Kumar, P. Vinay; Mounika, G. Jeevana

doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.004

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…The decreasing trend in the ISM rainfall is confirmed by the very recent study of Naidu et al (2015). According to Naidu et al (2015), the rainfall over Indian region during the last three decades has decreased because of the decreased circulation during monsoon season over India and the north-south SST gradient over the North Indian Ocean. Spatial distribution of zonal wind at 100 hPa level has been shown in Figures 2(a)-(c) during the early and the recent years .…”

Section: Qbo Phases Yearssupporting

confidence: 50%

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Rai

Dimri

2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Section: Qbo Phases Yearssupporting

confidence: 50%

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Rai

Dimri

2017

Atmospheric Science Letters

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“…During SM season, BoB is most favourable for the formation of cyclonic systems which can strengthen to the level of depression or deep depressions and generally not beyond the deep depressions due to existence of high vertical shear in the zonal component between the levels 850 and 200 hPa. In the global warming period, the formation of tropical cyclones in the SM season is also possible rarely as the shear is decreasing (Naidu et al, 2011).…”

Section: Mean and Anomalies Of Ssts Distribution In Sm Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 1965, Rajpur (Dehradun) recorded 900 mm of rains in 24 hr, comparable to the deluge that Mumbai faced on July 26, 2005, when 944 mm of rainfall claimed nearly 400 lives (Naidu et al, 2015). The extreme rainfall events are linked to the largest socioeconomic losses over the Asian domain (Roxy et al, 2017;Vellore et al, 2014, Vellore et al, 2016Krishnan et al, 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Inconsistency in the frequency of rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon season

Kumar

Naidu

Konatham

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In global warming, India is adversely affected by weather extremes. Summer monsoon contributes about 70% of annual mean rainfall to India by mode of an ensemble of synoptic disturbances and intense events. These events bring extreme amounts of rainfall in very few days. We have studied the anomalies of rainfall events for wet days (>0 mm rainfall), dry days (=0 mm), little rainfall days (>0 to <20 mm), moderate rainfall days (≥20 mm to <60 mm), heavy rainfall days (≥ 60 to <100 mm) and very heavy rainfall days (≥ 100 mm) during the period, 1901–1930; 1931–1960; 1961–1990 and 1991–2015 using India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall data. In the present scenario, even though an extensive increase in frequency of lows forming in the Bay of Bengal is observed, only a few are intensified into depressions and above stages. Alternatively, monsoon circulation is trailing its strength; therefore extreme (heavy and very heavy rainfall) events came into existence to balance the mean rainfall activity. The rise in these events may be due to an increasing inconsistency of the strength of low‐level jet, an increase of sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and dynamic flow of moisture supply to inland from neighbourhood seas. An increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall events is seen over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Jammu & Kashmir, central Northeast India (CNEI) and west central India (WCI) in the recent years (25 years) compared to previous 9 decades. Whereas, a decrease in the frequencies of little and moderate rainfall events are observed over the parts of the Western Ghats, Northeast India, WCI and CNEI. There is an increasing trend in the inconsistency of daily rainfall activity due to an increase in the frequency of extreme events in the global warming era.

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“…They attributed this to the changes in moisture convergence over central India. Later, in an observational study, Naidu et al [] noted the decrease in rainfall activity over India during monsoon season. Having recognized consequences of decrease of rainfall activity over India, here we attempted to understand the hydrological cycle, with respect to the climate indices during monsoon season.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

Mohan

Rajeevan

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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The hydroclimatic intensity index (HY‐INT) is a single index that quantitatively combines measures of precipitation intensity and dry spell length, thus providing an integrated response of the hydrological cycle to global warming. The HY‐INT index is a product of the precipitation intensity (PINT, intensity during wet days) and dry spell length (DSL). Using the observed gridded rainfall data sets of 1951–2010 period, the changes in HY‐INT, PINT, and DSL over the Indian monsoon region have been examined in addition to changes in maximum consecutive dry days (MCD). We have also considered 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for examining the changes in these indices during the present‐day and future climate change scenarios. For climate change projections, the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario was considered. The analysis of observational data during the period 1951–2010 suggested an increase in DSL and MCD over most of central India. Further, statistically significant (95% level) increase in HY‐INT is also noted during the period of 1951–2010, which is mainly caused due to significant increase in precipitation intensity. The CMIP5 model projections of future climate also suggest a statistically significant increase in HY‐INT over the Indian region. Out of the 10 models considered, seven models suggest a consistent increase in HY‐INT during the period of 2010–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the projected increase in HY‐INT is mainly due to increase in the precipitation intensity, while dry spell length (DSL) showed little changes in the future climate.

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Anomalous behavior of Indian summer monsoon in the warming environment

Cited by 17 publications

References 18 publications

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Effect of changing tropical easterly jet, low level jet and quasi‐biennial oscillation phases on Indian summer monsoon

Inconsistency in the frequency of rainfall events in the Indian summer monsoon season

Past and future trends of hydroclimatic intensity over the Indian monsoon region

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