Enrollment forecasters have much to consider. A combination of quantitative and qualitative methods can sometimes be the best approach.
Methods and Techniques of Enrollment Forecasting
Paul T. Brinkman, Chuck McIntyreInstitutional researchers are often called on to conduct or assist with enrollment forecasts. Occasionally, personnel in institutional-planning offices, in state agencies, or in the marketing offices of continuing education divisions will be called on to produce such forecasts. Enrollment forecasts are fundamental elements of planning and budgeting at any higher education institution that depends on student enrollments or at any agency or organization that has responsibilities for supporting those institutions. Numerous institutional policy issues are related to enrollment forecasts-tuition policy, budget forecasting, faculty staffing, institutional closure or consolidation, and optimizing objectives related to the size and composition of enrollment (Weiler, 1987a).There is no one right way to forecast enrollment. In this chapter, we discuss a variety of approaches and associated issues. We relate choices of method or technique to specific circumstances and situations in an effort to provide some guidance to readers in choosing their own approaches. We focus on forecasting institutional enrollments.
Factors Affecting EnrollmentNo one factor determines enrollments at a college or university. For the economist, enrollment will be determined by the intersection of measured supplyand-demand curves. For the demographer, enrollments are related to numbers of people and where they are located. For the higher education administrator, enrollment is determined by the combined effects of many manageable and unmanageable factors, categories that are roughly, though not completely, equivalent to supply and demand. In addition, there is always the possibility that a