Anpassungsstrategien an den Klimawandel für Österreichs Wasserwirtschaft – Ziele und Schlussfolgerungen der Studie für Bund und Länder

Blöschl, Günter; Schöner, Wolfgang; Kroiß, H.; Blaschke, Alfred Paul; Böhm, Reinhard; Haslinger, Klaus; Kreuzinger, Norbert; Merz, Ralf; Parajka, J.; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

doi:10.1007/s00506-010-0274-2

Cited by 28 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Results on temperature signals are even more unambiguous with respect to the direction of change towards a significant rise in air temperature for both seasons and the whole of Austria. The latter findings equally concur with other studies on climate change in Europe, and particularly the Alps, which likewise show a significant increase in mean air temperature in all seasons and in all regions (e.g., [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]). …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

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Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Kellermann

Bubeck

Kundela³

et al. 2016

Climate

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Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and-if needed-to adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The analyses on future temperature trends consistently show a marked increase in mean air temperature in all regions (e.g., [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]). According to Eitzinger et al [10], Gobiet et al [11], and Strauss et al [15], a significant annual mean temperature rise of approximately 1.6˝C until 2040 is expected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Kellermann

Bubeck

Kundela³

et al. 2016

Climate

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“…Due to climate change impacts on seasonal water availability and runoff regimes, an increase in hydroelectric power generation was observed in the winter, whereas a decrease could be found in the summer. Another recently published Austrian study [7] confirms the shift from summer to winter production, but shows only small mean annual changes until 2050. Nonetheless, most of the studies do not directly model the changes of hydropower under altered climate conditions but rather try to assign it to altered runoff conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Moreover, hydrological periodicities of low-flows and floods as well as the snow and ice storage, especially in mountainous areas, play an important role for runoff generation. Under climate change conditions diverse changes of the mentioned water balance components are expected for the European Alps in the next decades, which are considered by several recent studies [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. The hydrological changes can be expected to consist of are considerable changes in seasonal precipitation patterns indicating an increase in winter and a decrease in summer precipitation, a general increase of mean annual evapotranspiration, a decrease in mean annual runoff and seasonal changes of runoff regimes as well as a decrease of the snow and ice storage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various studies show a mean annual decline of runoff as well as seasonal runoff changes for different regions of the European Alps thus forecasting a future reduction of the mean annual hydroelectric power generation [5,7,[21][22][23][24]. Besides for the European Alps, studies on climate change impacts on hydropower were carried out also for other regions of the world.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin

Koch

Prasch

Bach³

et al. 2011

Energies

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Climate change has a large impact on water resources and thus on hydropower. Hydroelectric power generation is closely linked to the regional hydrological situation of a watershed and reacts sensitively to changes in water quantity and seasonality. The development of hydroelectric power generation in the Upper Danube basin was modelled for two future decades, namely 2021-2030 and 2051-2060, using a special hydropower module coupled with the physically-based hydrological model PROMET. To cover a possible range of uncertainties, 16 climate scenarios were taken as meteorological drivers which were defined from different ensemble outputs of a stochastic climate generator, based on the IPCC-SRES-A1B emission scenario and four regional climate trends. Depending on the trends, the results show a slight to severe decline in hydroelectric power generation. Whilst the mean summer values indicate a decrease, the mean winter values display an increase. To show past and future regional differences within the Upper Danube basin, three hydropower plants at individual locations were selected. Inter-annual differences originate predominately from unequal contributions of the runoff compartments rain, snow-and ice-melt. OPEN ACCESSEnergies 2011, 4 1509

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Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

Köplin

Schädler

Viviroli

et al. 2013

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22-year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22-year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood-generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century.

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Anpassungsstrategien an den Klimawandel für Österreichs Wasserwirtschaft – Ziele und Schlussfolgerungen der Studie für Bund und Länder

Cited by 28 publications

References 9 publications

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing Climate—Assessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria

How Will Hydroelectric Power Generation Develop under Climate Change Scenarios? A Case Study in the Upper Danube Basin

Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change

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