Antarctic extreme events

Abstract

There is increasing evidence that fossil-fuel burning, and consequential global heating of 1.1°C to date, has led to the increased occurrence and severity of extreme environmental events. It is well documented how such events have impacted society outside Antarctica through enhanced levels of rainfall and flooding, heatwaves and wildfires, drought and water/food shortages and episodes of intense cooling. Here, we briefly examine evidence for extreme events in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean across a variety of environments and timescales. We show how vulnerable natural Antarctic systems are to extreme events and highlight how governance and environmental protection of the continent must take them into account. Given future additional heating of at least 0.4°C is now unavoidable (to contain heating to the “Paris Agreement 1.5°C” scenario), and may indeed be higher unless drastic action is successfully taken on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by mid-Century, we explain it is virtually certain that future Antarctic extreme events will be more pronounced than those observed to date.

Polar digital space in Antarctica

“…Many of these events have *tspasova@space.bas.bg; http://www.space.bas.bg/en/structure/department/asi.html been attributed primarily to the burning of fossil fuels and the loss of nature. For some time now the science of such attribution has been robust at the level that is needed beyond reasonable doubt 3,4 , which has led to serious efforts to consider 'loss and damage' payments from rich developed fossil-fuel-based economies to parts of the world experiencing the effects of extreme events. While much attention has been given to weather-driven events such as heatwaves and rainfall elsewhere in the world, there is yet to be as great an appreciation of the occurrence and impact of extreme events in Antarctica 4 .…”

“…For some time now the science of such attribution has been robust at the level that is needed beyond reasonable doubt 3,4 , which has led to serious efforts to consider 'loss and damage' payments from rich developed fossil-fuel-based economies to parts of the world experiencing the effects of extreme events. While much attention has been given to weather-driven events such as heatwaves and rainfall elsewhere in the world, there is yet to be as great an appreciation of the occurrence and impact of extreme events in Antarctica 4 . In the Antarctic, extreme events are manifested in many ways, including the effects of: climatic extremes such as extreme weather events; catastrophic events such as ice shelf collapse; possible step changes in the environment such as recent sea ice loss; very rapid periods of environmental change and corresponding rapid changes in key biota; and sudden, humaninduced direct perturbations, such as the effects of whaling and sealing.…”

“…In the Antarctic, extreme events are manifested in many ways, including the effects of: climatic extremes such as extreme weather events; catastrophic events such as ice shelf collapse; possible step changes in the environment such as recent sea ice loss; very rapid periods of environmental change and corresponding rapid changes in key biota; and sudden, humaninduced direct perturbations, such as the effects of whaling and sealing. By taking an inclusive approach it allows us to understand how and why (relatively) rapid change can occur in Antarctica through high-magnitude low-frequency events of a variety of types 4 .…”

The joys of returning to in-person conferences - in an age of travel judgement

“…However, at the same time as our delight at these types of meetings and all of the benefits of their resumption, sobering global headlines have reported various types of damaging ‘extreme events’ across the world, with Antarctica far from escaping exposure to these (Siegert et al 2023). This year's extreme record low for Antarctic winter sea ice coincided with the INSTANT meeting, providing a concentration of world-leading expertise for the world's media.…”

“…But I would invite all Antarctic researchers to consider Antarctic Science for submissions or for proposing further Special Collections arising from the various meetings mentioned, as well as upcoming ones around the world. However, at the same time as our delight at these types of meetings and all of the benefits of their resumption, sobering global headlines have reported various types of damaging 'extreme events' across the world, with Antarctica far from escaping exposure to these (Siegert et al 2023). This year's extreme record low for Antarctic winter sea ice coincided with the INSTANT meeting, providing a concentration of world-leading expertise for the world's media.…”