Antarctic Winds: Pacemaker of Global Warming, Global Cooling, and the Collapse of Civilizations

Abstract

We report a natural wind cycle, the Antarctic Centennial Wind Oscillation (ACWO), whose properties explain milestones of climate and human civilization, including contemporary global warming. We explored the wind/temperature relationship in Antarctica over the past 226 millennia using dust flux in ice cores from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C (EDC) drill site as a wind proxy and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in ice cores from EDC and ten additional Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. The ACWO wind cycle is coupled 1:1 with the temperature cycle of the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO), the paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), at all eleven drill sites over all time periods evaluated. Such tight coupling suggests that ACWO wind cycles force ACO/AAO temperature cycles. The ACWO is modulated in phase with the millennial-scale Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) temperature cycle. Each AIM cycle encompasses several ACWOs that increase in frequency and amplitude to a Wind Terminus, the last and largest ACWO of every AIM cycle. This historic wind pattern, and the heat and gas exchange it forces with the Southern Ocean (SO), explains climate milestones including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Contemporary global warming is explained by venting of heat and carbon dioxide from the SO forced by the maximal winds of the current positive phase of the ACO/AAO cycle. The largest 20 human civilizations of the past four millennia collapsed during or near the Little Ice Age or its earlier recurrent homologs. The Eddy Cycle of sunspot activity oscillates in phase with the AIM temperature cycle and therefore may force the internal climate cycles documented here. Climate forecasts based on the historic ACWO wind pattern project imminent global cooling and in ~4 centuries a recurrent homolog of the Little Ice Age. Our study provides a theoretically-unified explanation of contemporary global warming and other climate milestones based on natural climate cycles driven by the Sun, confirms a dominant role for climate in shaping human history, invites reconsideration of climate policy, and offers a method to project future climate.

Bioaerosols as Evidence of Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and Shantar Islands in the Late Glacial–Holocene

“…The periods with established strong winds around the Shantar Islands agree well (Figure 6) with natural wind cycles recorded by dust flux in ice cores within Dome C, Antarctica [62]. This confirms that paleoscale Antarctic Oscillation was accompanied by similar alternation of cold and warm periods in the northern hemisphere during the Holocene.…”

“…In phase 1, the most active entry of marine diatoms into the northern part of Bolshoy Shantar Island took place. During Deglaciation (15,000-10,000 [62]; changes in the solar activity are based on 10 Be measurements in the polar ice are given according to [63]; global Holocene cold events, according to [64]; cold events in the Okhotsk Sea, according to [65]; and Holocene subdivision, according to [66]. Gray bars show the periods of intensification of cyclogenesis.…”

“…Changes in the concentration of marine diatoms and relative abundance of allochtonous pollen according to an age-depth model for peat bog sections in Late Glacial-Holocene. A time series of dust flux at Dome C, Antarctica, is shown as vertical blue arrows point to wind termini, according to[62]; changes in the solar activity are based on10 Be measurements in the polar ice are given according to[63]; global Holocene cold events, according to[64]; cold events in the Okhotsk Sea, according to[65]; and Holocene subdivision, according to[66]. Gray bars show the periods of intensification of cyclogenesis.…”

Mass Extinctions and Their Relationship With Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration: Implications for Earth's Future

“…Computation of 95% confidence limits for cross-correlation coefficients was done as described previously (W. J. Davis & Davis, 2020) using directional t-tests.…”

“…The intermediary mechanism commonly proposed is the postulated increase in global temperature that is widely believed to result from increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration (but see W. J. Davis, 2017; W. J. Davis & Davis, 2020). A more direct measure of the global warming effect of trace gases such as CO 2 is RF computed at the top of the troposphere.…”