Anthropogenic Changes of Caucasus Forest Landscapes

Nikolaishvili, Dali; Dvalashvili, G.

doi:10.11648/j.earth.s.2015040501.20

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The Caucasus ecoregion (Figure 1) is one of the biologically richest yet most highly anthropogenically threatened area (Mittermeier et al, 2011; Nikolaishvili & Dvalashvili, 2015; Shatberashvili et al, 2016) and is at high risk of climate change, especially in its eastern part (IPCC, 2022; Nikolaishvili & Dvalashvili, 2015; Shatberashvili et al, 2016). An alarming forest cover loss in the South Caucasus region (i.e., Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia) is predicted in this century due to the climatic crisis (Dagtekin et al, 2020; Dering et al, 2021; Zazanashvili et al, 2011), a pattern already observed in Azerbaijan (Buchner et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Sękiewicz

Danelia

Fazaliyev³

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Predicting species‐level effects of climatic changes requires unraveling the factors affecting the spatial genetic composition. However, disentangling the relative contribution of historical and contemporary drivers is challenging. By applying landscape genetics and species distribution modeling, we investigated processes that shaped the neutral genetic structure of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis), aiming to assess the potential risks involved due to possible future distribution changes in the species. Using nuclear microsatellites, we analyze 32 natural populations from the Georgia and Azerbaijan (South Caucasus). We found that the species colonization history is the most important driver of the genetic pattern. The detected west–east gradient of genetic differentiation corresponds strictly to the Colchis and Hyrcanian glacial refugia. A significant signal of associations to environmental variables suggests that the distinct genetic composition of the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian stands might also be structured by the local climate. Oriental beech retains an overall high diversity; however, in the context of projected habitat loss, its genetic resources might be greatly impoverished. The most affected are the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian populations, for which the detected genetic impoverishment may enhance their vulnerability to environmental change. Given the adaptive potential of range‐edge populations, the loss of these populations may ultimately affect the specie's adaptation, and thus the stability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the Caucasus ecoregion. Our study is the first approximation of the potential risks involved, inducing far‐reaching conclusions about the need of maintaining the genetic resources of Oriental beech for a species' capacity to cope with environmental change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Sękiewicz

Danelia

Fazaliyev³

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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“…The present study shows that, in Europe, these areas are located primarily at the northern fringe of the continent (Figure 4), including the coasts of the Barents Sea, which are threatened by human activities and suffer from environmental pollution [81]. Another geodiversity hotspot can be identified in the Caucasus, which also undergoes significant anthropogenic pressure [82,83]. High values for the components of geodiversity were also noted for the highest mountain ranges of western and southern Europe (Figure 4 and Supplementary Materials S1), such as the Alps and the Pyrenees, which experience much higher human population densities than the northern coasts and can also be defined as possible geodiversity hotspots.…”

Section: Geodiversity Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 63%

Quantifying Geodiversity at the Continental Scale: Limitations and Prospects

Wolniewicz

2023

Resources

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Geodiversity, defined as the natural range of geological, geomorphological, hydrological, and soil features, has been explored in a growing number of studies at different spatial scales. However, most research efforts have been directed at analysing geodiversity at a fine-scale. Here, an estimation of the geodiversity of the European subcontinent is performed using six available high-resolution global data sets that describe the diversity of selected features of the abiotic environment. Six maps representing geomorphological, geological, hydrological, hydrogeological, soil, and topographical diversity are compiled using the methods of centroid analysis and kernel density estimation. The present contribution identifies areas with high values of most geodiversity variables which were not previously studied, nor are included in the network of international geoparks. The study also shows that, although remote sensing images and digital elevation models allow one to grasp a significant understanding of geodiversity on the continental scale, fine-resolution and process-oriented geological data sets are required to further enhance the quality of large-scale geodiversity assessments. To ensure interoperability between studies, a consensus is necessary regarding the analytical methods, classification rules, standardised indices and dictionaries. Without this, comparisons of geodiversity evaluations across different scales and between distant study areas remain difficult.

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“…The heterogeneous topography of the region may also continue to act in part as potential future refugia for taxa – as it has in the past (Bilgin, 2011; Homami Totmaj et al., 2021; Médail & Diadema, 2009). However, the diverse terrestrial ecosystems of this unique region are under continuous pressure from anthropogenic interferences, including severe ecosystem fragmentation due to land use and land cover change (Nikolaishvili & Dvalashvili, 2015; Sefidi et al., 2022; Sekercioglu et al., 2011). Therefore, simulation experiments designed to forecast the potential distribution of woody species, including the direction of any potential migration, or an “escape route” under different climate change scenarios are timely and pertinent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitude or altitude as the future refugium? A case for the future of forests in Asia Minor and its surroundings

Ekberzade,

Yetemen,

Ezber

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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At the current juncture with climate change, centennial projections of species distributions in biodiversity hotspots, using dynamic vegetation models may provide vital insight into conservation efforts. This study aims to answer: (1) if climate change progresses under a business‐as‐usual scenario of anthropogenic emissions for this century, how may the forest ranges be affected? (2) will there be potential regional extinctions of the taxa simulated? (3) may any site emerge as a potential refugium? Study Area: Anatolian Peninsula and its surroundings, longitudes 24–50° E, latitudes 33–46° N. Time Period: 1961‐2100. Major Taxa Studied: 25 woody species and a C3 grass‐type. Method: Keeping a spatial window large enough to track potential changes in the vegetation range and composition especially in the mountain ranges within the study area, we parameterized a process‐based regional‐to‐global dynamic vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS v 4.1), forced it with ERA5‐Land reanalysis for the historical period, and five different bias‐corrected centennial global circulation model (GCM) datasets under SSP5‐8.5, and simulated the dynamic responses of key forest species. Bivariate spatio‐temporal maps from the simulation results were constructed for final analysis. Results: A significant increase in woody taxa biomass for the majority of our study area, towards the end of the century was simulated, where temperate taxa with high tolerance for drought and a wider range of temperatures took dominance. The mountain ranges in our study area stood out as critical potential refugia for cold favoring species. There were no regional extinctions of taxa, however, important changes in areal dominance and potential future forest composition were simulated. Main Conclusions: Our simulation results suggest a high potential for future forest cover in our study region by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario, sans human presence, with important changes in vegetation composition, including encroachment of grasslands ecosystems by woody taxa.

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Anthropogenic Changes of Caucasus Forest Landscapes

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus

Quantifying Geodiversity at the Continental Scale: Limitations and Prospects

Latitude or altitude as the future refugium? A case for the future of forests in Asia Minor and its surroundings

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