Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios

Johns, T. C.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Ingram, William; Johnson, C. E.; Jones, Andrew K.; Lowe, Jason; Mitchell, J. F. B.; Roberts, David L.; Sexton, David M. H.; Stevenson, David S.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Woodage, Margaret J.

doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0296-y

Cited by 510 publications

(389 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The horizontal resolution of the ocean model is approximately 0.28125 • (lon) ×0.1875 • (lat). As a component of CMIP3, M3H has carried out historical simulations of the period 1850-2000, using observed natural and anthropogenic forcings (Nozawa et al, 2007): changes in total solar irradiance (Lean et al, 1995), volcanic aerosols (Sato et al, 1993), well-mixed greenhouse gases (Johns et al, 2003), tropospheric and stratospheric ozone (Randel and Wu, 1999;Sudo et al, 2002), surface emissions of anthropogenic carbonaceous aerosols (Nozawa and Kurokawa, 2006) and precursors of sulfate aerosols (Lefohn et al, 1999), and land use (Hirabayashi et al, 2005). The simulation results have been widely used to analyze global or regional climate change and to drive RCMs (Lucarini et al, 2007;Gao et al, 2012;Guo et al, 2014).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Guo

Wang

2016

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution GCM. However, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM (VFRGCM) and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that: (1) The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation. (2) The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method. (3) The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall, the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future, and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

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Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Guo

Wang

2016

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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“…Although these two climate forcings are estimated to be relatively small (Houghton et al 2001), further investigation is required to determine whether they could contribute significantly to twentieth-century climate change. Further details of the simulations are given in appendix A and a comprehensive description can be found in Tett et al (2002) and Johns et al (2003). The observational dataset we use is an updated version of the combined dataset of 1.5-m air temperature over land and sea surface temperatures of Parker et al (1994).…”

Section: Natural Contributions To Twentieth-century Temperature Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…More details on the parameterization of the direct and indirect effects of sulfates in HadCM3 can be found in Johns et al (2003).…”

Section: B Sulfatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?

Stott¹,

Jones²,

Mitchell³

2003

J. Climate

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Current attribution analyses that seek to determine the relative contributions of different forcing agents to observed near-surface temperature changes underestimate the importance of weak signals, such as that due to changes in solar irradiance. Here a new attribution method is applied that does not have a systematic bias against weak signals.It is found that current climate models underestimate the observed climate response to solar forcing over the twentieth century as a whole, indicating that the climate system has a greater sensitivity to solar forcing than do models. The results from this research show that increases in solar irradiance are likely to have had a greater influence on global-mean temperatures in the first half of the twentieth century than the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic forcings. Nevertheless the results confirm previous analyses showing that greenhouse gas increases explain most of the global warming observed in the second half of the twentieth century.

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“…Foi utilizado o sistema integrado de modelagem climática regional PRECIS ("Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies"), versão 1.2 (Jones et al, 2004), desenvolvido no Hadley Centre, Inglaterra, com as condições de contorno do modelo climático regional HadRM3P, o qual foi implementado no Brasil pelo Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (Cptec), do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (Inpe). Sua dinâmica é baseada no HadRM3, que é uma versão mais recente da componente atmosférica do modelo de circulação global HadCM3 (Johns et al, 2003).…”

Section: Methodsunclassified

“…Sua dinâmica é baseada no HadRM3, que é uma versão mais recente da componente atmosférica do modelo de circulação global HadCM3 (Johns et al, 2003).…”

Section: Methodsunclassified

Mudanças climáticas e impactos na necessidade hídrica das culturas perenes na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará

Gondim

Castro

Evangelista

et al. 2008

Pesq. agropec. bras.

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Resumo -O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na demanda de água para irrigação de culturas perenes, na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará. Foi empregado o sistema integrado de modelagem regional PRECIS ("Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies"), e aplicado o método de redução de escala de bacia hidrográfi ca, com as condições de contorno do modelo climático regional (HadRM3P). Foi utilizado um conjunto de climatologia de base do modelo de 1961 a 1990 e de projeções climáticas futuras. As coordenadas geográfi cas da região em estudo foram consideradas para interpolação num sistema de informação geográfi ca. A evapotranspiração de referência foi estimada por meio de dados da temperatura média mensal. As mudanças climáticas projetadas aumentaram a demanda projetada de água para irrigação, porque a evapotranspiração foi estimada para aumentos de 3,1 a 2,2% e a precipitação pluvial foi estimada para diminuições de 30,9 a 37,3%. O aumento da necessidade hídrica foi estimada em 32,9% a 43,9%, para o ano de 2040, conforme o cenário analisado.Termos para indexação: evapotranspiração, irrigação, SIG. Climate change and impacts on water requirement of permanent crops in the Jaguaribe Basin, Ceará, BrazilAbstract -The aim of this study was to estimate climate change impacts on irrigation water demand for permanent crops. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) system was applied, and downscaling techniques were used at the river basin level, with the boundary conditions of the regional climate model (HadRM3P). A climate data set was generated for 1961 to 1990 (baseline) and for future climate projections. The regional geographical coordinates were considered for interpolation in a georeferenced coordinated system. The reference evapotranspiration was estimated through data of monthly average temperature. Projected climate change increased projected irrigation water demand, because evapotranspiration was estimated to increase by 3.1 to 2.2% and rainfall was estimated to decrease by 30.9 to 37.3%. The 2040 water need was estimated to increase by 32.9% to 43.9%, according to the analyzed scenario.

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Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios

Cited by 510 publications

References 58 publications

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?

Mudanças climáticas e impactos na necessidade hídrica das culturas perenes na Bacia do Jaguaribe, no Estado do Ceará

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