Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Zhang, Wenxia; Li, Wei; Zhu, Lianhua; Ma, Yuanyuan; Yang, Lihong; Lott, Fraser C.; Li, Chunxiang; Dong, Suocheng; Tett, Simon F. B.; Dong, Buwen; Sun, Yujiao

doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0147.1

Cited by 31 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…These findings are consistent with the attribution outcomes in Li et al (2018Li et al ( , 2021 and Zhang et al (2020), which all reported anthropogenic influences reduced the likelihood of warm-season persistent precipitation extremes but focused on subregion at the lower reaches of YRB, central-western China, and southern China, respectively. As the other side of the coin, Lu et al (2021) found that the anthropogenic influences increased the 2019 May-June like droughts over southern China [ Figure 2D in Lu et al (2021)].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Nanding

Yang

et al. 2020

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May–September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961–2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019–like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 90%

Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Nanding

Yang

et al. 2020

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Specifically, attribution studies have been growing rapidly in the recent decade in China. Multiple attribution studies focusing on heavy precipitation events in China consistently point to a significant anthropogenic influence on the likelihood or magnitude of events (e.g., Burke et al, 2016;Sun et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2020). It is also worth noting that anthropogenic influence strongly depends on the duration of the heavy rainfall events (Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Multiple attribution studies focusing on heavy precipitation events in China consistently point to a significant anthropogenic influence on the likelihood or magnitude of events (e.g., Burke et al, 2016;Sun et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2020). It is also worth noting that anthropogenic influence strongly depends on the duration of the heavy rainfall events (Zhang et al, 2020). In particular, anthropogenic forcing has increased the likelihood of daily scale and short-duration extreme precipitation events in China, mainly as a result of atmospheric warming and moistening (Burke et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is also worth noting that anthropogenic influence strongly depends on the duration of the heavy rainfall events (Zhang et al, 2020). In particular, anthropogenic forcing has increased the likelihood of daily scale and short-duration extreme precipitation events in China, mainly as a result of atmospheric warming and moistening (Burke et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2020). In contrast, anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of persistent heavy rainfall events, which is related to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation associated with increased aerosol emissions (Zhang et al, 2020;Zhou et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In particular, anthropogenic forcing has increased the likelihood of daily scale and short-duration extreme precipitation events in China, mainly as a result of atmospheric warming and moistening (Burke et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2020). In contrast, anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of persistent heavy rainfall events, which is related to the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon circulation associated with increased aerosol emissions (Zhang et al, 2020;Zhou et al, 2020). In summary, anthropogenic forcing has significantly influenced the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over China, with different contributions from individual forcing components.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

2020年梅雨期极端降水的归因探讨和未来风险预估研究

Zhou¹,

Ren²,

Zhang³

2021

Sci. Sin.-Terrae

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Eastern China experienced excessive Meiyu rainfall in the summer of 2020, with a long rainy season and frequent extreme rainfall events. Extreme rainfall occurred on daily to monthly time scales. In particular, persistent heavy rainfall events occurred; e.g., the maximum accumulated rainfall over four consecutive weeks (Rx28day) in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 94% greater than climatology, breaking the observational record since 1961. With ongoing anthropogenic climate change, it is of vital importance to understand the anthropogenic influence on this extreme rainfall event and its driving mechanisms. In this study, based on multi-model simulations under different external forcings that participate in the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-phase 6 (CMIP6), we show that anthropogenic forcing has reduced the probability of the Rx28day extreme rainfall as that in observations in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020, by 46% (22-62%). Specifically, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have increased the probability by 44% as a result of atmospheric warming and moistening. However, this effect was offset by anthropogenic aerosols, which reduced the probability by 73% by reducing atmospheric moisture and weakening the East Asian summer monsoon circulation. With the continuous emissions of GHGs and reductions in aerosols in the future, similar persistent heavy rainfall events are projected to occur more frequently. A higher occurrence probability is expected under higher emission scenarios, which is estimated to be 4.6, 13.6 and 27.7 times that in the present day under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21 st century. Thus, efficient mitigation measures will help to reduce the impacts related to extreme rainfall.

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Understanding the extremely wet autumn over West China in 2017 from intraseasonal oscillation perspective

Guo

Wang

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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West China experienced an extremely wet autumn in 2017, and the amount of September–October precipitation is the greatest during 1961–2018. This study explored the physical processes responsible for two primary intraseasonal precipitation events which contribute greatly to such an extremely wet season. The first event peaking in early September is induced by the southward movement of a frontal system from the northern China, which is attributed to the southward displacement of an intraseasonal anticyclonic anomaly. The northerly anomaly associated with the anticyclone advects cold air into West China and thus triggers frontal precipitation. The second event peaking in early October is related to the northward shift and intensification of an intraseasonal anticyclonic anomaly centred over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. The southerly anomaly along the western flank of the anticyclone transports moisture to West China and thus triggers precipitation. The different initiation processes for the two precipitation events may be due to the distinct dynamical and thermal‐dynamical conditions in September and October. West China has sufficient moisture but less dynamical disturbances in September, while it has adequate dynamical disturbances but less moisture in October.

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Anthropogenic Influence on 2018 Summer Persistent Heavy Rainfall in Central Western China

Cited by 31 publications

References 20 publications

Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

2020年梅雨期极端降水的归因探讨和未来风险预估研究

Understanding the extremely wet autumn over West China in 2017 from intraseasonal oscillation perspective

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