Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India

Kishore, P.; Basha, Ghouse; Ratnam, M. Venkat; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sun, Qing; Ouarda, T.

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-07373-3

Cited by 15 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The temporal variation in UTCI shows an increase in 1998 over NWI and the entire India, which could be due to an extreme heat wave event during 1998 75 . The UTCI increased over NWI after 2000 because the extreme heat wave events mostly happened from 2000 to 2015 in various parts of the country, including NWI 76 . The temporal trend in ERA5 and CMIP6 MME UTCI over NWI and the entire Indian region indicates the rising trends during summer Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot

Shukla

Attada

2023

Sci Rep

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The frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress conditions during summer are expected to increase due to climate change. This study examines sixteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that have been bias-adjusted using the quantile delta mapping method. These models provide Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for summer seasons between 1979 and 2010, which are regridded to a similar spatial grid as ERA5-HEAT (available at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution) using bilinear interpolation. The evaluation compares the summertime climatology and trends of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) mean UTCI with ERA5 data, focusing on a regional hotspot in northwest India (NWI). The Pattern Correlation Coefficient (between CMIP6 models and ERA5) values exceeding 0.9 were employed to derive the MME mean of UTCI, which was subsequently used to analyze the climatology and trends of UTCI in the CMIP6 models.The spatial climatological mean of CMIP6 MME UTCI demonstrates significant thermal stress over the NWI region, similar to ERA5. Both ERA5 and CMIP6 MME UTCI show a rising trend in thermal stress conditions over NWI. The temporal variation analysis reveals that NWI experiences higher thermal stress during the summer compared to the rest of India. The number of thermal stress days is also increasing in NWI and major Indian cities according to ERA5 and CMIP6 MME. Future climate projections under different scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) indicate an increasing trend in thermal discomfort conditions throughout the twenty-first century. The projected rates of increase are approximately 0.09 °C per decade, 0.26 °C per decade, and 0.56 °C per decade, respectively. Assessing the near (2022–2059) and far (2060–2100) future, all three scenarios suggest a rise in intense heat stress days (UTCI > 38 °C) in NWI. Notably, the CMIP6 models predict that NWI could reach deadly levels of heat stress under the high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The findings underscore the urgency of addressing climate change and its potential impacts on human well-being and socio-economic sectors.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot

Shukla

Attada

2023

Sci Rep

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“…In the United States, extreme heatwaves are responsible for more deaths annually than cyclones/hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, oods, and earthquakes combined (Luber & McGeehin, 2008). Many studies have investigated anthropogenic in uences on the frequency and/or severity of heatwaves on a global scale (Kishore et al, 2022;Otto et al, 2012;Miralles et al, 2014;Quesada et al, 2012). Some studies also show a strong in uence of north Paci c Ocean variability on Indian summer heatwaves (Hari et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Waves over India during Mar-May 2022: An object-based approach to Forecasting and Verification

Singh

Dube

Ashrit

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Heatwaves are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the world. Higher daily peak temperatures, duration, intensity and frequency of heatwaves are increasing globally due to climate change. In India, the instances of heatwaves have increased in recent years along with their intensity which has resulted in increased casualties. For the purpose of mitigation and reduction of damages due to heatwaves timely and accurate forecasts of such events are required. In order to check the accuracy and to generate more confidence in using these forecasts, an in-depth verification of the forecasts is required. Many traditional verification methods are commonly used to assess the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in predicting extreme weather like heatwaves. These methods have a limited utility as they are dependent only on a match at a grid-to-grid level. Spatial verification techniques, such as features or object-based approaches, can illustrate the model performance in a significant way by differentiating between forecast and observed features and comparing their spatial scale, shape, size, orientation, coverage area, displacement and intensity. In this study, we have tried to demonstrate the ability of a global model in predicting a maximum 2m temperature (Tmax), particularly in the heatwave-prone zones of India. For this purpose, the forecasts of Tmax obtained from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather forecasting (NCMRWF) Unified Model (NCUM) are verified using the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). The study period is chosen to be March to May 2022. This study showed that NCUM forecast objects had a possible perfect timing and propagation of Tmax ≥ 41°C and ≥ 43°C objects when compared to the observations. It was also noticed that the NCUM model had a southwesterly bias in the location of Tmax objects for Tmax ≥ 45°C, indicating a potential lag in system propagation. On the seasonal scale assessment showed that the forecast performance of the model for heatwaves (Tmax ≥ 41°C and ≥ 43°C) is reasonably good which is supported by many attributes like centroid distance; there was a small variation in the centroid distance median is ~ 150–200 km up to 120 hr lead times. The complexity ratio showed that the internal structure of the forecast matched ~ 83% and this result was supported by the curvature ratio was the near to perfect i.e. 95–97%, the 50th percentile intensity ratio which is also near to perfect 98–99% and the symmetric difference is the small enough to coincide with the observed heatwave zones. Based on the total interest varying in the range of 90–97% up to 120 hr lead times it is evident that NCUM model accurately forecasts the heatwaves structure, shape and size well in advance up to 120 hr lead times.

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“…Nature has had far-reaching impacts on many aspects of human society including human health, psychology, the economy, and policy (Carleton and Hsiang 2016, Bratman et al 2019, Soga and Gaston 2020). Likewise, human society also has considerable influence on the natural world including impacts on climate (Yuan et al 2019, Madakumbura et al 2021, Kishore et al 2022) and biological communities, from microscopic organisms to charismatic megafauna (Burney and Flannery 2005, Cavicchioli et al 2019, Hill et al 2020, Adhikari et al 2022). Parasitic organisms (i.e., parasites and pathogens) are one such component of ecosystems that have had considerable influence on human culture, behavior, and even the very course of human evolution (Lafferty 2006, Vannier-Santos and Lenzi 2011), and likewise may be affected by human society in return (Budria and Candolin 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parasite and pathogen prevalence in our closest animal companions is determined by accessibility of sanitation services

Lepczyk

Wilson

Valenta

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Despite the critical role parasites play in ecosystem functioning and their considerable influence on human society, little is known about their variations in abundance on a global scale. This gap in knowledge is amplified by a lack of holistic understanding on how the abundance of parasites of wildlife and humans varies across environmental and socioeconomic gradients, despite a need to integrate study of parasites across social and environmental spheres. Free-roaming companion animals (e.g., domestic cats (Felis catus) and dogs (Canis lupus familiaris)) share pathogens and have frequent contact with humans and wildlife. Thus, they are an effective model to understand how parasite and pathogen prevalence of humans and wildlife varies across environmental and socioeconomic gradients. Through a global systematic review and analysis of socioeconomic and environmental variables, including per capita GDP, income disparity, sanitation, biodiversity, island habitation, and latitude, we find that sanitation and island habitation best explained free-roaming companion animal parasite and pathogen prevalence. Sanitation was significantly associated with parasite and pathogen prevalence in free-roaming companion animals, such that for every 10% increase in the proportion of the human population with improved sanitation access, parasite and pathogen prevalence in free-roaming companion animals decreased by 12% (5-19%, 95% C.L.; p = 0.0023). Since companion animals share many parasites with humans and wildlife, these results suggest that actionable interventions to improve sanitation access could reduce parasite and pathogen exposure risks from companion animals to humans and wildlife.Significance StatementIn addition to playing a critical role in ecosystem functioning, parasites also influence human health, behavior, and society. Further, parasites are also impacted by human activities, as much as by ecological phenomena in natural environments. Despite these dualities, little is known about their variations in abundance on a global scale across environmental and socioeconomic gradients. Using free-roaming companion animals (e.g., domestic cats (Felis catus) and dogs (Canis lupus familiaris)) as a model system, we find that access to safely managed sanitation services is strongly associated with parasite and pathogen prevalence. This finding underscores improvements to sanitation as an actionable One Health intervention that could reduce parasite and pathogen exposure risks from companion animals to humans and wildlife.

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Anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves over India

Cited by 15 publications

References 24 publications

CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot

CMIP6 models informed summer human thermal discomfort conditions in Indian regional hotspot

Heat Waves over India during Mar-May 2022: An object-based approach to Forecasting and Verification

Parasite and pathogen prevalence in our closest animal companions is determined by accessibility of sanitation services

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