Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 1: Analysis and forecast of managing sanctions against Russia

Objectives: to study and forecast the state of the Russian economy after the intensification of the sanctions war and formalization of the Russian anti-sanctions and sanctions economic policy.Methods: the research uses such techniques of abstract-logical method as analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, analogy, formalization, and forecasting.Results: The main macroeconomic indicators of Russia were analyzed (2006–2023) and forecasted (2024–2025). The impact of sanctions on the negative trends in the development of industries mainly contributing to the Russia’s GDP was assessed. As a result, the author identified the industries that have become drivers of the country’s economic development, as well as those subjected to the most significant pressure as a result of the sanctions. the comparative analysis of indicators allowed us to conclude that the Russian economy as a whole in the medium term coped with the sanctions load better than the world economy with the consequences of the sanction war. Conclusions were made on the results of anti-Russian sanctions and Russia’s response measures. Russia’s sanctions, anti-sanctions and counter-sanctions economic policy was formalized.Scientific novelty: the concepts of “sanctions economic policy”, “anti-sanctions economic policy”, “counter-sanctions economic policy”, “sanctions policy”, “anti-sanctions policy”, “counter-sanctions policy” were clarified. The main goals of sanctions and anti-sanctions economic policy of Russia were revealed. The principles of Russia’s sanctions and anti-sanctions policy were supplemented. It was shown that the Russian sanctions economic policy is open, rational, protective and protectionist. It was found that Russia’s anti-sanctions economic policy is highly politicized, medium-term and protectionist. The main directions of development of anti-sanctions and sanctions economic policy of Russia were outlined.Practical significance: the obtained results will allow understanding the essence, causes and processes in the management of the Russia’s sanctions and anti-sanctions activity, predicting its results more accurately, and determining measures to correct the anti-sanctions and sanctions policy of the Russian Federation.

Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 2: Aftermaths of sanctions war, management of changes, clarification of research concepts

Manushin

2024

Trends in the Russian economy development during the new anti-Russian sanctions

Malkina,

Balakin

2024

Objective: to identify trends in the development of the Russian economy during the new anti-Russian sanctions. To this end, the paper analyzes the impact of the new sanctions on the budgetary sphere, the development of economic sectors and industries and the Russian regions.Methods: the work uses data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Federal Treasury, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (Ministry of Economic Development), the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia), the Federal Tax Service (FTS), the Federal Customs Service (FCS), the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS). For their analysis, graphical, tabular, and analytical methods are used.Results: the new anti-Russian sanctions caused significant changes in the structure of the Russian exports and trade balance. The reduced inflow of foreign currency put significant pressure on the ruble exchange rate, which created inflation risks. The devaluation was restrained by the Bank of Russia new currency regime. The favorable situation in the energy market in 2022 led to an increase in budget revenues. In 2023, economic growth resulted from an active fiscal policy supported by moderate monetary expansion. However, it was achieved at the cost of an increase in the budget deficit and public debt. The response of different industries and regions to the sanctions shock was heterogeneous. The development of certain adaptive strategies by economic entities, as well as the response of the authorities played an important role. The new sanctions regime prompted a revision of the state economy regulation paradigm. Dirigisme manifested itself in the increase of state orders, subsidies and other support for protected industries with one-time withdrawals of opportunistic revenues of big business. Monetary and fiscal policy gradually acquired a hybrid character. Direct and indirect price regulation became an important instrument of state regulation during the sanctions.Scientific novelty: it consists in a comprehensive analysis of development trends during the new anti-Russian sanctions, their impact on foreign economic parameters, budgetary sphere, financial system, development of Russian industries and regions.Practical significance: statistical information on various aspects of the Russian economy development during the new antiRussian sanctions was summarized and analyzed. The work can be useful to researchers studying the functioning of the Russian economy under sanctions, as well as to businesspersons for assessing the risks, opportunities and prospects of their businesses development, and to government agencies for forming an effective anti-crisis policy.

Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 3: analysis of anti-crisis measures, managing Russian sanctions and anti-sanctions

Manushin

2024

Self Cite

Objective: to propose anti-sanction and sanction measures based on the analysis of the external and internal environment of the Russian economy and anti-crisis measures implemented by the Russian government.Methods: techniques of abstract-logical method were used, such as analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, analogy, and forecasting.Results: a critical assessment of anti-crisis measures by other scientists was given; the anti-sanctions plan of the Russian Federation for 2022–2024 was analyzed. As a result of the calculations, the approximate parameters of the budget system expenditures for the realization of the anti-sanctions policy were determined. Prospects, main measures and plans to bring priority sectors of the national economy out of the crisis were assessed. It was found that, despite the success of the antisanctions plan, many of the problems hindering the development of the Russian economy have not yet been solved. The main anti-sanction and sanction measures for the Russian economy development were proposed.Scientific novelty: measures to correct Russia’s anti-sanction and sanction economic policy were proposed: first, those referring to the area of transition to non-obvious, rational, defense-attack and protectionist sanctions economic policy of Russia; second, those for the transition to open, long-term, protectionist and preventive anti-sanction economic policy of the Russian Federation.Practical significance: the proposed measures will weaken the consequences of the sanctions war and lay the foundation for Russia’s economic development in the medium and long term. A systematic approach to the study of anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia will allow other countries (China, first of all) to use the Russian experience of successful counteraction to the sanctions of the US and its allies.