Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Background. : The lack of advance planning in the situation of a public health emergency can lead to wastedwaste of resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, concerning focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce with considering in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available. Methods. : We constructed the a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The WHO's World Health Organization's COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the nearest next 12 weeks. Results. : Over the forecast period, there will be 104,713 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34,904 hospital admissions due to critical disease, in total. This will require 47,247 beds for severe disease and 1,929 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. Also, tThere will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, the countryKazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase of in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways of their effectiveto redistribute redistributionresources effectively. Conclusion. : Kazakhstan is will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting the COVID-19 in a number of interrelated directions.

Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance

“…In Kazakhstan, the first case of COVID-19 was officially registered on 13 March 2020; by March 16, the country’s government introduced a state of emergency that lasted until 11 May 2020 [ 2 ]. COVID-19 began to escalate immediately after the termination of lockdown measures imposed during that period, the consequence of which was a significant first wave from the end of June/early July to late August 2020 [ 3 ]. From November 2020 to February 2021, the number of cases remained relatively stable.…”

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for disease severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan: A nationwide study

“…Vitamin D is needed for the production of antipathogenic molecules by epithelium of respiratory tract and also for regulation of inflammatory response to viral infection [ 36 ]. Kazakhstan is a Vitamin D deficient area [ 37 ] and this might be potentiated by the recent nationwide quarantine, when people were insistently advised to stay home [ 38 ]. Considering that in Kazakhstan the prevalence of pre-diabetes reaches 38.2 % and type 2 DM is up to 9.3 % in nationwide study a large group of people under the risk of developing unfavorable outcomes and complications of COVID-19 [ 16 ].…”

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“…Patients with COVID-19 may also need emergency care. In a multidisciplinary hospital, the problem of medical sorting of patients to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is very acute, since the lack of clear and understandable sorting rules threatens to close the hospital and conduct quarantine measures, which would lead to the impossibility of providing medical care to patients even in emergency situations [43,44].…”