Anticipation of COVID-19 Vaccines Reduces Social Distancing

Abstract

We show that the anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces voluntary social distancing.In a large-scale preregistered survey experiment with a representative sample, we study whether providing information about the safety, effectiveness, and availability of COVID-19 vaccines affects compliance with public health guidelines. We find that vaccine information reduces peoples' voluntary social distancing, adherence to hygiene guidelines, and their willingness to stay at home. Vaccine information induces people to believe in a swifter return to normal life and puts their vigilance at ease. The results indicate an important behavioral drawback of the successful vaccine development: An increased focus on vaccines can lead to bad health behaviors and accelerate the spread of the virus. The results imply that, as vaccinations start and the end of the pandemic feels closer, existing policies aimed at increasing social distancing will be less effective and stricter policies might be required.

BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Qatar

“…Another potential explanation pertains to the gradual easing of public health restrictions in Qatar in the last few months, at a time when Delta incidence has been slowly increasing. With more restrictions eased based on vaccination status, which is implemented through a mandatory mobile app (the Ehteraz app), vaccinated individuals may have had higher social contact rates than unvaccinated persons and may have adhered less strictly to safety measures, such as masks, due to their perception of lower risk [32][33][34] . Such risk compensation may even increase over time after completing the second dose, resulting in further normalization of behavior [33][34][35] .…”

BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in Qatar

“…Many social, work, and travel activities at present require evidence of vaccination (a "health pass") that is administered through a mandatory mobile app (the Ehteraz app). Vaccinated persons presumably have a higher social contact rate than unvaccinated persons, and may have also reduced their adherence to safety measures, such as protective masks, with the perception of vaccine protection [27][28][29] . Such risk compensation may be even higher with increasing time since receiving the second dose, leading to progressive normalization of behavior [28][29][30] .…”

“…Vaccinated persons presumably have a higher social contact rate than unvaccinated persons, and may have also reduced their adherence to safety measures, such as protective masks, with the perception of vaccine protection [27][28][29] . Such risk compensation may be even higher with increasing time since receiving the second dose, leading to progressive normalization of behavior [28][29][30] . Risk of exposure to the virus could thus be higher among vaccinated persons than among unvaccinated persons, thereby diminishing the observed realworld vaccine effectiveness relative to the actual biological vaccine effectiveness.…”

Behavioral brittleness: the case for strategic behavioral public policy

“…Decentralized and opaque staging and sign-up processes are already compounded by erratic supply and the need to navigate multiple levels of contradictory federal, state, and community guidelines, putting behavioral solutions at immediate risk for systemic brittleness. Finally, unlike the one-and-done flu vaccine, Covid-19's twodose protocol increases chances of anticipatory brittleness due to a high likelihood of complacency and reduced vigilance maintaining other preventive behaviors such as social distancing after one dose (Andersson et al, 2020) and failures of followthrough to receive the recommended second dose. Further anticipatory brittleness is likely to result from concerns about vaccine effectiveness for viral mutations, as well as predictable misperceptions of cause-and-effect when vaccines given to already-infected individuals are falsely blamed for patient morbidity or mortality.…”