Anticipatory action to manage climate risks: Lessons from the Red Cross Red Crescent in Southern Africa, Bangladesh, and beyond

Poterie, Arielle Tozier de la; Castro, Eduardo A.; Rahaman, Hafizur; Heinrich, Dorothy F.; Clatworthy, Yolanda; Mundorega, Luis

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100476

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Given that the risk of persistent drought in southern Africa is projected to worsen, the question arises as to how the increasing risk to elephants might be managed over the next decades. In the humanitarian sector, anticipatory action has been shown to substantially reduce climate‐related risks, but only if the challenges of working with uncertain data and multiple hazards can be incorporated into early action plans (Boult et al, 2022; de la Poterie et al, 2023). In this context, the conservation sector may be able to learn lessons from the humanitarian and agricultural sectors, where the potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate has long been recognised (Winsemius et al, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Black,

Boult,

Hirons

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

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This study investigates meteorological drought in sub‐Saharan Africa within the context of elephant conservation. Prolonged drought significantly impacts elephants, leading to increased mortality rates and heightened human–elephant conflicts. We assess both the anticipated 21st century changes in impact‐relevant meteorological drought metrics and the efficacy of existing forecasting systems in predicting such droughts on seasonal time scales. The climate change element of our study uses the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble to evaluate projected change in 3‐month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3). We then carry out a quantitative assessment of seasonal forecast skill, utilizing 110 years of precipitation hindcasts generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) system. Our findings indicate that persistent drought is projected to become more frequent over the 21st century in southern Africa, where the majority of elephants reside. Analysis of seasonal hindcasts indicates that, while the forecasts have greater skill than climatology, they remain highly uncertain. Previous work suggests that it may be possible to reduce this uncertainty by contextualizing forecasts within specific climate regimes. However, even with improved forecast skill, effective action hinges on the alignment of forecasts with the practical needs of conservation practitioners. Over the next decades, a co‐production approach will be critical for leveraging seasonal forecasts for climate change adaptation within the conservation sector.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Black,

Boult,

Hirons

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, certain aspects of AA are improving, such as integration of Earth Observations (EO) into trigger model development and the production of funding structures that are designed to facilitate distribution of resources pre-disaster (Nauman et al, 2021;Pache et al, 2022). Yet, additional progress is needed, particularly related to prediction of geophysical and climatic variables, validation of forecasts, governance, and in defining processes for selection of one AA approach over another for a particular context (de Ruiter et al, 2020;Kruczkiewicz et al, 2022;de la Poterie et al, 2023). Best practices and opportunities for engagement within climate services, and for alignment with adaptation and mitigation strategies, as well as collaborating across various sectors in private industry, are also lacking, while demand accelerates.…”

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confidence: 99%