Antipyretic Medication for a Feverish Planet

Stoffel, Markus; Stephenson, David B.; Haywood, Jim M.

doi:10.1007/s41748-020-00182-6

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(56 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Arctic tundra and boreal forest regions, where especially winters are getting warmer, wetter and more unstable. These changes and their consequences on northern ecosystems are raising concerns about the elevated risk of emergence of zoonotic diseases in these regions (Epstein 2001 ; Semenza and Menne 2009 ; Evengård and Sauerborn 2009 ; Randolph and Rogers 2010 ; Hueffer et al 2013 ; Pauchard et al 2016 ; Pecl et al 2017 ; Contosta et al 2019 ; Stoffel et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Sipari

Khalil

Магнуссон

et al. 2021

Ambio

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many zoonotic diseases are weather sensitive, raising concern how their distribution and outbreaks will be affected by climate change. At northern high latitudes, the effect of global warming on especially winter conditions is strong. By using long term monitoring data (1980–1986 and 2003–2013) from Northern Europe on temperature, precipitation, an endemic zoonotic pathogen (Puumala orthohantavirus, PUUV) and its reservoir host (the bank vole, Myodes glareolus), we show that early winters have become increasingly wet, with a knock-on effect on pathogen transmission in its reservoir host population. Further, our study is the first to show a climate change effect on an endemic northern zoonosis, that is not induced by increased host abundance or distribution, demonstrating that climate change can also alter transmission intensity within host populations. Our results suggest that rainy early winters accelerate PUUV transmission in bank voles in winter, likely increasing the human zoonotic risk in the North.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Sipari

Khalil

Магнуссон

et al. 2021

Ambio

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Fuel pollution and climate change have prompted governments worldwide to favor electric vehicles (EVs) (Stoffel et al, 2020;Valipour et al, 2020;Huang et al, 2021c). EV registrations grew by 41% in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency's "Global EV Outlook 2021," despite a 16 percent drop in global car sales due to the pandemic (IEA, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Battery recycling policies for boosting electric vehicle adoption: evidence from a choice experimental survey

Yun

Liu

Lim

et al. 2022

Clean Techn Environ Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Other factors, such as the identification of reinfections and the seasonal immunity, can also be associated with such an increase [ 15 , 25 , 33 , 53 ]. In the sense of understanding the burden caused by the spread of diseases, numerous studies in different fields of science have been conducted, among which we may mention especially the development and improvement of mathematical models [ 42 ], environmental studies [ 3 , 19 , 30 , 48 , 49 ] and geopolitical aspects [ 46 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Stoffel et al. [ 49 ] analyzed the effect of the pandemic on carbon dioxide emissions during 2020, presenting an interesting comparison between solar radiation management and an antipyretic medicine (referring to global warming as a fever). The authors warn that, until the end of the pandemic, governments must do even more to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical modelling of the second wave of COVID-19 infections using deterministic and stochastic SIDR models

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recently, various countries from across the globe have been facing the second wave of COVID-19 infections. In order to understand the dynamics of the spread of the disease, much effort has been made in terms of mathematical modeling. In this scenario, compartmental models are widely used to simulate epidemics under various conditions. In general, there are uncertainties associated with the reported data, which must be considered when estimating the parameters of the model. In this work, we propose an effective methodology for estimating parameters of compartmental models in multiple wave scenarios by means of a dynamic data segmentation approach. This robust technique allows the description of the dynamics of the disease without arbitrary choices for the end of the first wave and the start of the second. Furthermore, we adopt a time-dependent function to describe the probability of transmission by contact for each wave. We also assess the uncertainties of the parameters and their influence on the simulations using a stochastic strategy. In order to obtain realistic results in terms of the basic reproduction number, a constraint is incorporated into the problem. We adopt data from Germany and Italy, two of the first countries to experience the second wave of infections. Using the proposed methodology, the end of the first wave (and also the start of the second wave) occurred on 166 and 187 days from the beginning of the epidemic, for Germany and Italy, respectively. The estimated effective reproduction number for the first wave is close to that obtained by other approaches, for both countries. The results demonstrate that the proposed methodology is able to find good estimates for all parameters. In relation to uncertainties, we show that slight variations in the design variables can give rise to significant changes in the value of the effective reproduction number. The results provide information on the characteristics of the epidemic for each country, as well as elements for decision-making in the economic and governmental spheres.

show abstract

Antipyretic Medication for a Feverish Planet

Cited by 8 publications

References 50 publications

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Climate change accelerates winter transmission of a zoonotic pathogen

Battery recycling policies for boosting electric vehicle adoption: evidence from a choice experimental survey

Mathematical modelling of the second wave of COVID-19 infections using deterministic and stochastic SIDR models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About