SummaryOne of the biggest practical problems with the optimization of shale gas stimulation design is estimating post-fracture production rate, production decline, and ultimate recovery. Without a realistic prediction of the production decline trend resulting from a given completion and reservoir properties, it is impossible to evaluate the economic viability of producing natural gas from shale plays.Traditionally, decline curve analysis (DCA) is commonly used to predict gas production and its decline trend to determine the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), but its analysis cannot be used to analyze what factors influence the production decline trend due to lack of underlying support of physics, which make it difficult to guide completion designs or optimize field development.In this article, we presented a unified shale gas reservoir model, which incorporates real gas transport, nano-flow mechanisms and geomechanics into fractured shale system. This model is used to predict shale gas production under different reservoir scenarios and investigate what factors control its decline trend. The results and analysis presented in the article provide us a better understanding of gas production and decline mechanisms in a shale gas well with certain conditions of the reservoir characteristics. More in-depth knowledge regarding the effects of factors controlling the behavior of the gas production can help us develop more reliable models to forecast shale gas decline trend and ultimate recovery. This article also reveals that some commonly hold beliefs may sound reasonable to infer production decline trend, but may not be true in a coupled reservoir system in reality.
IntroductionWith ever increasing demanding for cleaner energy, unconventional gas reservoirs are expected to play a vital role in satisfying the global needs for gas in the future. The major component of unconventional gas reservoirs comprises of shale gas. Shales and silts are the most abundant sedimentary rocks in the earth's crust and it is evident from the recent year's activities in shale gas plays that in the future shale gas will constitute the largest component in gas production globally, as conventional reservoirs continue declines (Energy Information Administration 2015). According to GSGI, there are more than 688 shales worldwide in 142 basins and 48 major shale basins are located in 32 countries (Newell 2011). Better reservoir knowledge and advancing horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies make the production of shale gas resources economically viable and more efficient.