Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; transfer velocity into a process-based lake model

Kiuru, Petri; Ojala, Anne; Mammarella, Ivan; Heiskanen, Jouni; Erkkilä, Kukka‐Maaria; Miettinen, Heli; Vesala, Timo; Huttula, Timo

doi:10.5194/bg-16-3297-2019

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(154 reference statements)

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“…Aim 2: Lake modeling MyLake is a 1D process-oriented model designed to simulate seasonal ice and snow cover, heat exchange and thermal stratification, N and P cycling, phytoplankton growth, oxygen and carbon dynamics, and water-sediment coupling (Saloranta and Andersen 2007;Couture et al 2015;de Wit et al 2018;Kiuru et al 2019;Markelov et al 2019). The model has previously been applied to boreal lakes to simulate the response of P cycling to external P loading and climate change (Couture et al 2014a(Couture et al , 2018.…”

Section: Study Site and Aim 1: Historical Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming combined with experimental eutrophication intensifies lake phytoplankton blooms

Salk

Venkiteswaran

Couture

et al. 2021

Limnology & Oceanography

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Phytoplankton blooms are a global water quality issue, and successful management depends on understanding their responses to multiple and interacting drivers, including nutrient loading and climate change. Here, we examine a long-term dataset from Lake 227, a site subject to a fertilization experiment (1969-present) with changing nitrogen:phosphorus (N:P) ratios. We applied a process-oriented model, MyLake, and updated the model structure with nutrient uptake kinetics that incorporated shifting N:P and competition among phytoplankton functional groups. We also tested different temperature and P-loading scenarios to examine the interacting effects of climate change and nutrient loading on phytoplankton blooms. The model successfully reproduced lake physics over 48 yr and the timing, overall magnitude, and shifting community structure (diazotrophs vs. non-diazotrophs) of phytoplankton blooms. Intra-and interannual variability was captured more accurately for the P-only fertilization period than for the high N:P and low N:P fertilization periods, highlighting the difficulty of modeling complex blooms even in well-studied systems. A model scenario was also run which removed climate-driven temperature trends, allowing us to disentangle concurrent drivers of blooms. Results showed that increases in water temperature in the spring led to earlier and larger phytoplankton blooms under climate change than under the effects of nutrient fertilization alone. These findings suggest that successful lake management efforts should incorporate the effects of climate change in addition to nutrient reductions, including intensifying and/or expanding monitoring periods and incorporating climate change into uncertainty estimates around future conditions.

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Section: Study Site and Aim 1: Historical Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming combined with experimental eutrophication intensifies lake phytoplankton blooms

Salk

Venkiteswaran

Couture

et al. 2021

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…MyLake runs at a daily time step using regularly spaced water layers whose vertical resolution is defined by the user. Different versions of the open-source code have been applied to simulate algal blooms (Moe et al, 2016), CO 2(g) and CH 4(g) (Kiuru et al, 2019), internal phosphorus loads (Markelov et al, 2019), and light attenuation dynamics (Pilla and Couture, 2021).…”

Section: Lake Models For Local Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

et al. 2022

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Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

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“…where DOC z is DOC concentration at depth (mg m −3 ; Kiuru et al, 2019). As DOC z increases with lake browning, the resulting value of K d PAR calculated each time step will increase, indicating greater attenuation of PAR and reduced water transparency.…”

Section: Model Selection and Updatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is a relatively concise MATLAB code (MATLAB 2019) that has performed well for small boreal lakes experiencing browning and seasonal ice cover. Its recent iterations focused on dissolved oxygen (Couture et al 2015), DOC (de Wit et al 2018), CO 2 and CH 4 (Kiuru et al 2019), and sediment-water interactions (Markelov et al 2019). Here, we updated the publicly available code described in Markelov et al (2019), which estimated K d PAR solely based on changing chlorophyll concentration and not DOC concentration, with two additional parameters: β DOC (Kiuru et al 2019) and β' DOC , which parametrize the timevarying response of PAR and UV attenuation to DOC concentrations via calculations of K d PAR and K d UV320 , respectively.…”

Section: Model Selection and Updatementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, very few long-term empirical datasets exist that document detailed measurements of these variables in lakes experiencing browning, in addition to the associated long-term physical, biological, and ecological responses (Williamson et al 2015). Hence, models can be used to understand and expand upon the long-term changes in lakes experiencing browning (Couture et al 2015;Kiuru et al 2019). Further, in conjunction with long-term empirical data, modeling studies can be used to support casual linkages between browning-related drivers and ecological responses, whereas in empirical studies alone, assigning direct causality is otherwise difficult without paired experimental evidence (Williamson et al 2015;Pilla et al 2018).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation and ultraviolet radiation in response to changing dissolved organic carbon in browning lakes: Modeling and parametrization

Pilla

Couture

2021

Limnology & Oceanography

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We present and evaluate an update to the process‐based lake model MyLake that includes a time‐varying linkage between light attenuation of both photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet (UV) radiation wavelengths to changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In many parts of northeastern North America and Europe, DOC in lakes has rapidly increased, leading to reduced water transparency and increases in light attenuation. These changes alter the vertical light and heat distribution that affect vertical structuring of temperature and dissolved oxygen. We use this model update to test the responsiveness of PAR and UV attenuation to short‐term fluctuations in DOC and with a test case of long‐term browning at Lake Giles (Pennsylvania). Lake Giles has browned significantly since the late 1980s, and three decades of detailed empirical data have indicated more than a doubling of DOC concentrations, and consequent increases in PAR and UV attenuation, warming surface waters, cooling deep waters, and increasing deepwater oxygen depletion. We found that the model performance improved by 16% and 52% for long‐term trends in PAR and UV attenuation, respectively, when these coefficients respond directly to in‐lake DOC concentrations. Further, long‐term trends in surface water warming, deepwater cooling, and deepwater oxygen depletion in Lake Giles were better captured by the model following this update, and were very rapid due to its high water transparency and low DOC. Hence, incorporating a responsive link between DOC and light attenuation in lake models is key to understanding long‐term lake browning patterns, mechanisms, and ecological consequences.

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Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO<sub>2</sub> transfer velocity into a process-based lake model

Cited by 5 publications

References 59 publications

Warming combined with experimental eutrophication intensifies lake phytoplankton blooms

Warming combined with experimental eutrophication intensifies lake phytoplankton blooms

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Attenuation of photosynthetically active radiation and ultraviolet radiation in response to changing dissolved organic carbon in browning lakes: Modeling and parametrization

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