Applicability of GCMs for evaluation of agro-climatic properties of local territories

Abstract

The analysis of reliability and accuracy reproduction of air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity of the air by 18 ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) included in CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) is performed. Based on statistical criteria, the best models that most accurately reproduce empirical data are selected. On the basis of these models, an ensemble of models is compiled. The calculation of several agro-climatic indicators for the European part of Russia is performed using an ensemble approach. The comparison of agro-climatic indicators calculated on the basis of the ensemble of models and observational data is carried out for the territory of the Upper Volga including Yaroslavl, Kostroma, Vologda, Novgorod and Tver regions. The feasibility of using the ensemble of models to assess agro-climatic conditions of the region is shown.