Application of a Generalized SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Algeria

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 reported in Wuhan is continuing to impress the world by its fast spread and the number of affected persons attracting an unprecedented attention.In this article, the classical SEIR model and a generalized SEIR model called SEIRDP were applied to predict the evolution of COVID-19 in Algeria for a future period of 100 days using official reported data from early April to early August, 2020. Initial evaluation showed that the two models had a net correspondence with the reported data during this period for cumulative infected cases but the number of cumulative deaths was underestimated with the classical SEIR model. Model prediction with the SEIRDP concluded that the number of cumulative infected cases will increase in the next days reaching a number of about 60 k in middle November with a median of about 300 daily cases. Also, the number of estimated deaths will be around 2k. These results suggest that the COVID-19 is ongoing to infect more persons which may push national authorities to carefully act in the probable leaving of containment.

Mathematical Model and Analysis on the Impact of Awareness Campaign and Asymptomatic Human Immigrants in the Transmission of COVID-19

“…Hence, by the fundamental existence and uniqueness theorem [ 22 ], the model system of equation ( 1 ) exhibits a unique solution locally in ℝ + 6 for all time t ≥ 0. Since the model system of equations [ 1 ] monitors human population, it is necessary to show that all its solutions must be nonnegative for future time t . This will be established by the following theorem.…”

“…In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The most recently discovered human coronavirus disease which is caused by a novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [ 1 , 2 ]. This disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, with common manifestation appears to be pneumonia [ 3 – 5 ].…”

“…Mathematical model is a mathematical equation that describes changes in the system with time, and it is useful to accurately predict the evolution of infectious disease (COVID-19), and this in turn helps to give an insight for health workers and government to deal on the most influential parameters in COVID-19 transmission [ 15 ]. Since COVID-19 outbreak, different scholars studied the transmission dynamics of the disease (COVID-19) by considering different scenarios [ 1 , 2 , 5 , 9 – 11 , 14 – 21 ] to curb its spread with the help of epidemiological mathematical model. However, all the above studies failed to consider the impact of awareness campaign and influx of COVID-19 asymptomatic human immigrants in the control of COVID-19 transmission.…”