Application of a population dynamics model to the probabilistic assessment of cooling water intake effects of Millstone Nuclear Power Station (Waterford, CT) on a nearby winter flounder spawning stock

The genetic stock structure of larval and juvenile winter flounder larvae in Connecticut waters of eastern Long Island Sound and estimations of larval entrainment

“…During normal station operations, cooling water withdrawn by the station causes the entrainment and loss of millions of winter flounder larvae as estimated by direct sampling (DNC, 2002). The issue of plant impact on winter flounder larval entrainment has been addressed by an indirect method (mass‐balance model)(Lorda et al ., 2000). The present genetic analysis provides a more direct quantitative estimate of entrainment loss by source population and can serve to corroborate modelling approaches.…”

“…Commercial harvests of winter flounder have decreased dramatically in the past decade to record low levels in several areas of Long Island Sound (ASFMC, 1998). The local Niantic River population of winter flounder is potentially impacted by the operation of the Millstone Power Station through the entrainment (capture and destruction) of larvae through the condenser cooling water systems located on the shoreline of the Niantic Bay portion of Long Island Sound, 1·8 km from the mouth of the Niantic River (Danila, 2000; Lorda et al ., 2000; DNC, 2002). The cooling water systems at the Millstone Power Station are estimated to have entrained from 40 to 500 million winter flounder larvae annually since 1976 (DNC, 2002).…”

“…The cooling water systems at the Millstone Power Station are estimated to have entrained from 40 to 500 million winter flounder larvae annually since 1976 (DNC, 2002). The impact of this entrainment to the local Niantic River stock is dependent on the fraction of that stock's larval production entrained each year and is a factor in the estimation of the assessment of the Millstone Power Station impact (Lorda et al ., 2000). Empirical mass‐balance calculations from 1984 to 2001 showed that a large number of entrained larvae must come from areas of Long Island Sound other than the Niantic River (DNC, 2002).…”

Comparing Clean Water Act Section 316(b) Policy Options

“…The overall risk aversion or degree to which more certain or timely outcomes are preferred may also be a reason for supporting technology standards as opposed to allowing site-specific determinations. 25 Finally, the BTA and AEI language of 316(b) likely would not be created today because of (at least for some) its evident ambiguity and brevity. The simplicity of 316(b) language is comparable in its logic to the now-repealed Delaney Clause of the Food and Drug Act prohibiting absolutely any amount of a carcinogen (e.g., from a pesticide used on a vegetable crop) to persist in processed food, regardless of the outcome to human health.…”

“…14 A good example of population modeling for the Ohio River using a basic Leslie matrix approach is in Lohner et al [24], in which a largely uniform modeling and data collection approach is used to model multiple species at several independent river pools, as opposed to modeling each pool using a different approach. For a contrasting example of intensive, sitespecific modeling, see Lorda et al [25]. The latter is also an example in which stochastic modeling is used to argue for a relatively small role for entrainment, compared to regional overfishing, as a cause of local winter flounder population decline.…”