Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction

Abstract

On the basis of the assumption that ω 2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency flat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation (R value) has a high confidence level.

Prediction of Earthquakes; Considering the Ratio of <i>P-to-S</i> Wave Velocities

“…Earthquakes are causing many devastations and deaths every year. Unfortunately, there is no scientific prediction methods does exist so far, Lomnitz [1], Hough [2], Gullu [3], Aggarwal et al [4], Verdugo [5], Liu et al [6], Sara [7] and Crampin et al [8]. Earthquakes are sudden and unexpected events and predictions are far away from reality.…”