Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory for a maintenance optimization problem

Procaccia, H.; Cordier, R.; Müller, Sebastian

doi:10.1016/s0951-8320(96)00006-3

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Probability assessment Balson et al (1992), Chien and Sainfort (1998), Dillon and Haimes (1996), Dunning et al (2001), Dyer et al (1990), Feinstein (1990), Keefer (1995), Keeney et al (1995), Keeney and von Winterfeldt (1991), von Winterfeldt (1994), McDaniels (1995), Paté-Cornell and Fischbeck (1994), , Procaccia et al (1997), Smith and McCardle (1999), Smith and Winkler (1999), Stafira et al (1997), Taha and Wolf (1996), Taylor et al (1993), von Winterfeldt and Schweitzer (1998), Winkler et al (1995), Yassine et al (1999).…”

Section: Methodological and Implementation Issues With Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note, also, that there were two special decision analysis issues in journals during the period Table 2 Application Articles Listed by Application Area ENERGY Bidding and Pricing: Keefer (1995), Keefer et al (1991), Kidd and Prabhu (1990). Environmental Risk: Balson et al (1992), French (1996), Hämäläinen et al (2000), Keeney and von Winterfeldt (1991), Procaccia et al (1997).…”

Section: Applications Articles and Publications Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001

2004

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T his article identifies, and provides perspective on, trends and developments in decision analysis applications, based primarily on an exhaustive survey of decision analysis applications published in the period 1990-2001 in major English-language operations research and closely related journals. It serves as a guide to those interested in recent applications in specific areas or in applications that illustrate the use of particular methods. We compare the characteristics of the applications articles surveyed here with those of applications articles appearing in a similar set of journals between 1970 and 1989 and conclude that the overall rate of publication of decision analysis applications has increased. In addition, we find that both the mix of application areas and the specific aspects of decision analysis that are emphasized in applications publications have shifted somewhat. We also identify and discuss noteworthy trends in, and developments affecting, published applications, including those in computer software and software-related tools, decision conferencing, stochastic trees, value-focused thinking, normative systems, organizational processes, and real options. We highlight several award-winning decision analysis applications and discuss formation of a new practitioner-oriented professional group. Finally, we present some concerns and thoughts on future needs for advancing decision analysis practice.

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Section: Methodological and Implementation Issues With Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Applications Articles and Publications Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001

2004

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“…6-2 Use of the laws or statistical distributions for reliability [7][8][9] Generally, there are three statistical laws used by the reliability engineers to adjust the phenomena of appearance of failures. It with the law of Gauss from where the distribution of failure is seen appear there centered around a median value in phase three of their life, phenomenon little running.…”

Section: Probability Of Failure Between T and (T+dt) = F(t+dt) -F(t)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization by the Reliability of the Damage by Tiredness of a Wire Rope of Lifting

Meksem¹,

Ghorba²,

Benali³

et al. 2011

AMM

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The metallic cables are used for various applications in many industrial fields, such as the aircraft industry, the systems of lifting, the electric lines… In addition, according to the application considered and the conditions of use, the metallic cables undergo degradations whose direct consequences are the strong modifications of the geometrical and mechanical characteristics of the components. What induces a notable reduction of the resistant capacity of the cable according to time, able to bring to failure. In particular at the time of the cyclic requests of loading and unloading where the cable undergoes a phenomenon of tiredness. For safety reasons and an optimal use, it is important to anticipate any brutal rupture. Our work consists in finding a method which allows the optimization of the critical damage and the prediction of its useful life expectancy to be able to change it at convenient time. An analysis making it possible to evaluate the effect of the factors affecting the performance of the long-term cable constitutes the principal work in our lab. It consists in developing a modelling making it possible to envisage the capacity resistant of a cable to various levels of damage of its components, the estimate of the residual life expectancy, the evaluation of the risk of rupture for a level of request given, a mechanical model describing the state of damage by tiredness and another mathematics describing the reliability and finally to an analytical modeling of the relation Damage-Reliability to predict the phenomenon of tiredness of the hoisting cables. The adopted approach is an approach multi-scales with a total decoupling between the scale of the wire and that of the cable. The criterion of the failure in fatigue for the cable is more complex than that applied to the continuous structures, where the measures of length of the crack or a simple observation of the loss of integrity can be enough. These criteria are based on a mixture of former experiment, personal preferences, and of damage, for each particular type of application of cable. The occurrence of the unacceptable number of the cuts of wire is, by far, the most common action adopted for the evaluation of the damage in fatigue of the cable, which justifies our choice. This relation makes it possible to connect the reliability to the damage through the fraction of life expectancy; this led to associate at each stage of damage corresponding reliability. In fact, the theory of the damage considers that the damage reached its maximum value 1 when there is appearance of a macroscopic crack; but the cable keeps a resistance translated by a no null reliability. The latter becomes it when the cable is completely broken. Optimization by the reliability of the damage is a technique which supports knowledge and a follow-up of the state of an entity requested during time. Thing was being able to have interest for a possible application in industrial maintenance. In this context, this work and other works of the same tendency were worked out to manage to establish the bond between reliability as being a statistical size, and the damage by tiredness observed and caused by the cyclic requests.

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“…Furthermore, Huang et al (2007) proposed a Bayesian decision by considering a non homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with Weibull failure intensity to determine the optimal number of the imperfect preventive maintenance policy. The previous models were proposed and extended by Hamada et al (2008), Percy (2002), Percy and Kobbacy (2000), Procaccia et al (1997), Pulcini (2000), and Sheu et al (1999Sheu et al ( , 2001.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Age Replacement Policy with a Safety Constraint via the Bayesian Method

Sheu

Chang

Chiu

2011

Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods

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Consider a system that is subject to shocks that arrive according to a non homogeneous Poisson process. As the shocks occur, the system has m + 1 failure modes including the following: (i) a non repairable failure (catastrophic) mode that calls for a replacement and (ii) m repairable failure (non catastrophic) modes that are rectified by minimal repairs. In this article, we propose an age-replacement model with minimal repair based on using the natural conjugate prior of Bayesian method. In addition, a safety constraint is considered to control the risk of occurring catastrophic failures in a specified time interval. The minimum-cost replacement policy is studied in terms of its existence and safety constraint. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the proposed model.

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Application of Bayesian statistical decision theory for a maintenance optimization problem

Cited by 13 publications

References 1 publication

Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001

Perspective on Decision Analysis Applications, 1990–2001

Optimization by the Reliability of the Damage by Tiredness of a Wire Rope of Lifting

Age Replacement Policy with a Safety Constraint via the Bayesian Method

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