Application of commensurability method for the long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava

Khrystiuk, Borys; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Pekárová, Pavla; Miklánek, Pavol

doi:10.26491/mhwm/114482

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…The formation of extreme floods is a common problem around the world, and in particular in Ukraine (Susidko and Luk'yanets, 2004;Sofia and Nikolopoulos, 2020;Khrystiuk et al, 2020;Merz et al, 2021;Yang et al, 2021). The most flood-prone region of Ukraine is the Carpathians, where frequent rain floods, sometimes catastrophic, cause significant material damage associated with the destruction of settlements, agricultural lands, communications, etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²,

Shpyg³

2022

ahs

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The physical and geographical location of the Stryi River Basin causes the formation of catastrophic floods, which are regularly forming in this region and cause significant material damage and, sometimes, the death of people. The last catastrophic flood took place on the Stryi River in June 2020. Thus, the creation of a modern system for forecasting the streamflow of the Stryi River is a very important task. This paper describes such an automated flood forecasting system (FFS Stryi) that is developed at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. The basis of the system is the hydrological module NAM of the Rainfall-Runoff software complex MIKE 11 (Denmark), which uses the forecasted weather parameters from the numerical mesoscale atmospheric model WRF ARW v. 3.6.1 (USA). The objective of this study is to verify this system and identify the factors that affect the accuracy of flood forecasting of the Stryi River. The system of streamflow forecasting of the Stryi River uses the continuous series of calculated (historical) levels and discharges, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, as well as the forecast of meteorological indicators for 5 days. The system is set to work with a three-hour time step in the automatic regime. Verification of FFS Stryi according to the historical meteorological data showed that the system reproduces the streamflow of the Stryi River with satisfactory quality. The accuracy of discharge forecasting depends on the accuracy of weather parameters forecasting and, above all, the quantity of precipitation and the time of their falling out. Errors of hydrological forecasting are caused by an imperfect hydrometeorological network of observations (number of points and frequency of measurement), a digital model of the relief of the Stryi River basin and errors of weather parameters forecasts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Khrystiuk¹,

Gorbachova²,

Shpyg³

2022

ahs

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Long-Term Forecasting of the Start Date of Spring Flood in the Upper of the Southern Buh River by Teleconnection Indices

Khrystiuk,

Gorbachova

2023

HHH

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The start date of spring flood is an important hydrological characteristic. Insufficient attention is paid to its long-term forecasting, which is due to the complexity and unsolved problem in terms of improving the quality of such forecasting. Most often, quantitative methods are used in long-term forecasting. The most used are statistical, correlation, and regression analysis. Recently, teleconnection indices and patterns are increasingly used in hydrological long-term forecasting. At the same time, the basis of the concept of forecasting by the teleconnection connections is the idea of the influence of distant fluctuations of atmospheric circulation on the hydrological event. So, the theteleconnection indices and patterns are used for forecasting and analysis of river flow, atmospheric precipitation, research of snow water equivalent of river basins, forecasting of droughts and ice phenomena. The objective of this of the study is to develop a methodology of the long-term forecast of the spring flood start date in the upper part of the Southern Buh River using teleconnection indices and patterns. The method of long-term forecasting of the start date of spring flood was developed for the Southern Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge. The Southern Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge is located in the forest zone and characterizes homogeneous conditions of the formation of spring flood. Information on the start dates of spring flood for the observation period 1966-2015 and teleconnection indices and patterns were used. The start dates of spring flood at the Southern Buh River near Lelitka village are characterized by significant variability. So, the difference between late and early dates of spring flood is 65 days. 34 teleconnection indices and patterns were used, which the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration USA were determined. The best regression relationship with the start dates of spring flood at the South Buh River – Lelitka village water gauge was obtained for the indices WPAC850 in January and AAO in December. The technique corresponds to the “satisfactory” category for the probability of not exceeding the permissible error, which allows it to be used for forecasting. So, the teleconnection indices and patterns can be quite successfully used in the long-term forecasting of the start date of spring flood.

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The forecasting of water runoff of the Styr river for the coming years

2021

Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series Geology. Geography. Ecology

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Formulation of the problem. The water flow of the Styr River is using for the needs of industry, agriculture and the population. Thus, forecasting the water flow of this river for the future is an important scientific and practical task. The hydrological forecasts that have a lead time of one year, two years, or a decade are not as reliable as they need to be. Now in the world this problem is not solved. Along with quantitative forecasting methods, the qualitative methods have also been developed. The method of commensurability refers to such methods. It was developed by Chinese geophysicist Weng Wen-Bo in 1984. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. The objective of this paper is to use the Weng Wen-Bo method for long-term water flow forecasting of the Styr River at Lutsk city. Methods. The commensurability method uses the dates on which natural phenomena (earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.) were observed. For this reason, it has been called the information method. It is characterized by simplicity of calculation, graphical visualization, the use of researcher intuition and minimum needs for input information. There are several ways of forecasting using the method of commensurability. This paper is used a method of forecasting by two-dimensional commensurability graphs. Such approach consists in the determining the commensurability values in the dates array of certain phenomena occurrence and creating a two-dimensional graph of commensurability, according to which forecasting occurs. The use of such a method allows determining the years that may be wet and dry in the near future. Results. The data of observations at the hydrological station of the Styr River - Lutsk city for the period 1923-2017 are used in the paper. The results of the study on the commensurability method show that the water flow of the river Styr in 2020-2021 should be more than the norm and in 2023-2024 - less than the norm. Scientific novelty and practical significance. In Ukraine the commensurability method was used for the first time for long-term forecasting of water flow for coming years. The estimating of the effectiveness of forecasting by the commensurability method requires an array of long-term forecasts. Therefore, the next step of the study should be to forecast of water flow on different rivers, but provided that they have the long series of observation. The results of the long-term forecasting will enable the relevant services the negative consequences of a hydrological phenomenon, such as low water flow or floods on rivers will prevent.

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Application of commensurability method for the long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Verification of the automated flood forecasting system on the Stryi River

Long-Term Forecasting of the Start Date of Spring Flood in the Upper of the Southern Buh River by Teleconnection Indices

The forecasting of water runoff of the Styr river for the coming years

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